Will Russians get to Egyptian resorts this year? Closed skies between Russia and Ukraine: what should an air passenger do?

New US sanctions due to the Skripal poisoning may affect the largest Russian airline Aeroflot. In fact, this means that by the beginning of winter, Russia and the United States may be left without direct flights for the first time in 30 years. What will this mean for the company itself and for passengers?

The US State Department announced on the evening of August 8 that Washington is preparing new sanctions against Russia in connection with the Skripal case.

As part of the first wave of measures, which take effect on August 22, the United States will ban the issuance of licenses for the export of goods related to national security to Russia.

The second wave of sanctions involves the possibility of depriving the aircraft of any airline controlled by the Russian government of the right to land in the United States.

Aeroflot fits this description - it is 51.2% owned by the state, another 3.5% is controlled by the state corporation Rostec. It is the only one that flies directly from Russia to the USA.

This will happen if Russia, three months after the introduction of the first wave of sanctions, does not provide a guarantee that it will no longer produce and use chemical weapons.

Against the backdrop of news about possible sanctions after the opening of the Moscow Exchange, Aeroflot was among the leaders in the fall. For some time, the airline's share price dropped to the level of early 2008, although by the end of the day the company's shares partially recovered the fall.

Profitable or not?

Aeroflot declined to comment. Flights to the USA are a profitable direction for this company, notes the head of the AviaPort analytical service, Oleg Panteleev.

But as a result, the volume of sales of round-trip air tickets from Russia to the USA in the first 7 months of 2018 decreased by almost a quarter compared to the same period last year, data from the Biletix service show.

“Only Aeroflot can be competitive in this market.” It has sufficient transportation capacity and a powerful sales network, including in the States. This allowed him to consistently squeeze out American carriers from the Russian route, because Aeroflot was more competitive,” notes Panteleev.

In March 2018, for example, the American company Delta left the route between Russia and the United States. For American carriers, domestic flights are more profitable than flights across the ocean to Russia, the expert notes.

How « Aeroflot « Has politics affected you before?

  • In March 2018, an Aeroflot plane that flew from Moscow to London was searched by British customs. The Russian Foreign Ministry and the company itself stated that the British authorities did not give a reason for the search and carried out the search without letting the ship’s commander out of the cockpit. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the inspection a provocation that was required by the British authorities to “save their reputation, which was completely undermined in connection with the Skripal case.”
  • In 2014, Aeroflot’s low-cost subsidiary Dobrolet, after 2 months of operation, fell under EU sanctions due to flights to Crimea. Contractors, including the German Lufthansa Technik, refused to work with the company. As a result, Aeroflot liquidated« daughter« . The new low-cost airline received a new name - Pobeda - and a new operator certificate.
  • In 2003, Aeroflot was forced to temporarily change the routes of its flights over Canada and reduce the number of flights to Toronto.The conflict flared up due to the fact thatairlinesIAir Canadaaskedfly free from Toronto to Delhi over Russian territory , but she was refused. As a result, the Canadian government established restrictions on transit flights of aircraft« Aeroflot« .
  • In December 1981, Aeroflot was banned from flying in US airspace after the introduction ofWithSoviet troops in Afghanistan. In September 1983-of the year, After that how Soviet air defense systems shot down a Boeing 747 of the South Korean airline Korean Air Lines, air traffic between Russia and the United States was effectively blocked. Later, the blockade was lifted, but until 1986, Aeroflot representative offices in New York and Washington were closed and contacts between American airlines and Aeroflot were prohibited.

If they do cancel it

A senior State Department official told Reuters that Washington's planned sanctions on Russia would not directly affect Aeroflot, but could theoretically cover goods exported by the United States that the Russian airline purchases.

Flight bans could be imposed on Aeroflot at the second stage of sanctions if Moscow does not comply with Washington’s conditions, in particular, if it does not allow international inspections.

According to Panteleev, prices for flights to the United States will increase, but only slightly, since the choice of flights with transfers is very large. According to Biletix, more than 95% of U.S. air tickets sold through this system are now on connecting flights. Moreover, after connecting at European airports, Russian passengers most often fly to the United States on flights of foreign airlines.

According to Panteleev, if Aeroflot is de facto banned from flying to the United States, Russia's retaliatory measures could be very harsh - one option could be to revise the agreements under which American carriers use routes over Russian territory.

Difficulties associated with the distribution of “Arctic” routes have arisen before. In May, the US Department of Transportation ordered three Russian airlines to provide information about future flights to the States to verify the flights' compliance with American law. US authorities called this a response to the actions of Russia, which did not provide American cargo carriers with a corridor to cross its airspace.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on August 9 that retaliatory measures would be worked out “based on the actions that the American side will take.”

“There will be measures - we will make decisions based on what American legislators and political lobbyists come up with this time,” Zakharova said. - Everything is very simple. If [the US] comes up with nothing, we won’t do anything; if they come up with something, we’ll respond; if they come up with something extra, we’ll respond in the same spirit. No one has canceled the rules of the game.”

According to Panteleev, Russian aviation authorities in any case will not allow American airlines to replace Aeroflot on direct flights.

Illustration copyright Sergei Bobylev/TASS/Getty Images

New US sanctions due to the Skripal poisoning may affect the largest Russian airline Aeroflot. In fact, this means that by the beginning of winter, Russia and the United States may be left without direct air service for the first time in the last 30 years. What will this mean for the company itself and for passengers?

The US State Department announced on the evening of August 8 that Washington is preparing new sanctions against Russia in connection with the Skripal case.

  • Are new “draconian sanctions” dangerous for Russia and why does Trump need them?
  • "They teach history poorly." Russian politicians and officials assessed the new US sanctions
  • Russian media: ban on Aeroflot flights to the USA is madness

As part of the first wave of measures, which take effect on August 22, the United States will ban the issuance of licenses for the export of goods related to national security to Russia.

The second wave of sanctions involves the possibility of depriving the aircraft of any airline controlled by the Russian government of the right to land in the United States.

Aeroflot fits this description - it is 51.2% owned by the state, another 3.5% is controlled by the state corporation Rostec. It is the only one that flies directly from Russia to the USA.

This will happen if Russia, three months after the introduction of the first wave of sanctions, does not provide a guarantee that it will no longer produce and use chemical weapons.

Against the backdrop of news about possible sanctions after the opening of the Moscow Exchange, Aeroflot was among the leaders in the fall. For some time, the airline's share price dropped to the level of early 2008, although by the end of the day the company's shares partially recovered the fall.

Profitable or not?

Aeroflot declined to comment. Flights to the USA are a profitable direction for this company, notes the head of the AviaPort analytical service, Oleg Panteleev.

But as a result, the volume of sales of round-trip air tickets from Russia to the USA in the first 7 months of 2018 decreased by almost a quarter compared to the same period last year, data from the Biletix service show.

Illustration copyright KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/Getty Images

“Only Aeroflot can be competitive in this market. It has enough carrying capacity and a powerful sales network, including in the States. This allowed it to consistently squeeze out American carriers from the Russian route, because Aeroflot was more competitive "- notes Panteleev.

In March 2018, for example, the American company Delta left the route between Russia and the United States. For American carriers, domestic flights are more profitable than flights across the ocean to Russia, the expert notes.

How " " Has politics affected you before?

  • In March 2018, an Aeroflot plane that flew from Moscow to London was searched by British customs. The Russian Foreign Ministry and the company itself stated that the British authorities did not give a reason for the search and carried out the search without letting the ship’s commander out of the cockpit. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the inspection a provocation that was required by the British authorities in order to “save their reputation, which was completely undermined in connection with the Skripal case.”
  • In 2014, the low-cost subsidiary of Aeroflot, Dobrolet, after 2 months of operation, came under EU sanctions due to flights to Crimea. Contractors, including the German Lufthansa Technik, refused to work with the company. As a result, Aeroflot liquidated" daughter" . The new low-cost airline received a new name - Pobeda - and a new operator certificate.
  • In 2003, Aeroflot was forced to temporarily change the routes of its flights over Canada and reduce the number of flights to Toronto.The conflict flared up due to the fact thatairlinesIAir Canadaaskedfly for free from Toronto to Delhi over Russian territory, but she was refused. As a result, the Canadian government established restrictions on transit flights of aircraft" " .
  • In December 1981, Aeroflot was banned from flying in US airspace after the introduction ofWithSoviet troops in Afghanistan. In September 1983-of the year, After that how Soviet air defense systems shot down a Boeing 747 of the South Korean airline Korean Air Lines, air traffic between Russia and the United States was effectively blocked. Later the blockade was lifted, but until 1986 Aeroflot representative offices in New York and Washington were closed and contacts between American airlines and Aeroflot were prohibited.

If they do cancel it

A senior State Department official told Reuters that Washington's planned sanctions on Russia would not directly affect Aeroflot, but could theoretically cover goods exported by the United States that the Russian airline purchases.

Flight bans could be imposed on Aeroflot at the second stage of sanctions if Moscow does not comply with Washington’s conditions, in particular, if it does not allow international inspections.

According to Panteleev, prices for flights to the United States will increase, but only slightly, since the choice of flights with transfers is very large. According to Biletix, more than 95% of U.S. air tickets sold through this system are now on connecting flights. Moreover, after connecting at European airports, Russian passengers most often fly to the United States on flights of foreign airlines.

Illustration copyright Marina Lystseva/TASS/Getty Images

According to Panteleev, if Aeroflot is de facto banned from flying to the United States, Russia's retaliatory measures could be very harsh - one option could be to revise the agreements under which American carriers use routes over Russian territory.

Difficulties associated with the distribution of “Arctic” routes have arisen before. In May, the US Department of Transportation ordered three Russian airlines to provide information about future flights to the States to verify the flights' compliance with American law. US authorities called this a response to the actions of Russia, which did not provide American cargo carriers with a corridor to cross its airspace.

  • The US requires Russian airlines to report on flights

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on August 9 that retaliatory measures would be worked out “based on the actions that the American side will take.”

“There will be measures - we will make decisions based on what American legislators and political lobbyists come up with this time,” Zakharova said. “It’s all very simple. If the [US] doesn’t come up with anything, we won’t do anything; if they come up with something, we’ll respond, they’ll come up with something.” - something extra - we will respond in the same spirit. No one has canceled the rules of the game."

According to Panteleev, Russian aviation authorities in any case will not allow American airlines to replace Aeroflot on direct flights.

The ban on direct flights between Russia and Ukraine has come into force. RBC looked at how foreign airlines are preparing to enter a market in which Russian and Ukrainian carriers earned 7–8 billion rubles. in year

Passengers in the waiting room at Boryspil airport in Kyiv (Photo: REUTERS 2015)

Bypass only

Saturday is the last day whenit was possible to fly from Moscow to Kyiv and back by direct flight. From October 25, direct flights between the two countries are prohibited, and sales closed. The introduction of the ban became known at the end of September, and inOctober, many took advantage of the last chance for a convenient flight - online ticket sales service Biletix recorded direct sales growth in the Moscow-Kyiv direction by 11% compared to last year, Moscow-Odessa by 4%, company general director Alexander Sizintsev told RBC.​

Who served direct flights to Ukraine

Aeroflot made 35 flights a week to Kyiv, 21 flights to Odessa and 14 to Kharkov.

"Transaero" operated 23 flights a week to Kyiv, once to Odessa.

S7 carried out seven weekly flights to Kyiv and one to Odessa.

"UTair" I flew to Kyiv 14 times a week and to Lviv and Odessa seven times a week.

"Ukraine International Airlines" (UIA) operated direct flights from Kyiv to Moscow - 20 flights per week, to St. Petersburg - 14 flights per week, Kaliningrad - three flights per week. From Odessa, UIA had four flights a week to Moscow and one to St. Petersburg.

"Dnepravia" made seven flights a week from Dnepropetrovsk to Moscow.

Source: airline data as of the end of September 2015, data from the Federal Air Transport Agency

From this Monday, you can only fly to Ukraine with a transfer. Before the ban, the flight from Moscow to Kyiv took an hour and a half on average. Now the shortest flight will take at least 4-4.5 hours (Air Moldova with a stop in Chisinau). The remaining options are even longer - 4-8 hours (Belavia with a transfer in Minsk) or 7.5-9 hours (AirBaltic with a transfer in Riga), reports Onetwotrip. According to Aviasales, October 25 is the busiest cheap flight one way with an hour connection with Air Moldova will cost 5952 rubles, Velavia - 8276 rubles. (connection - one and a half hours), AirBaltic - 9453 rubles. (connection - five hours).

There has not yet been a surge in sales for flights with transfers - early sales of air tickets to Ukraine after October 25 are almost zero, according to the travel service Tutu.ru. “We are seeing an increase in demand, but there is no jump,”AirBaltic Vice President confirms JanisVanags . He believes that clients waited until the last minute to see whether the ban would be implemented.

According to Onetwotrip analysts, before the ban on air travel between Russia and Ukraine, it was more profitable to buy direct flights: the current prices for a round trip ticket with a transfer are approximately equal to the prices for direct tickets that were in effect before, or even higher. According to Onetwotrip calculations, September 28 - October 25 average price a direct ticket to Kyiv was 11,312 rubles, to Odessa - 14,098 rubles. October 25 - November 22, the average flight price at which tickets are sold from Moscow to Kyiv is 12,931 rubles, to Odessa - 13,621 rubles.

Flights for foreigners

Kyiv will continue to be included in the ranking of the ten most popular citiesof foreign destinations from Russia, regardless of the political situation, believes CEO Biletix Alexander Sizintsev. “The conflict does not apply to airlines from third countries that will take over this route,” he says.

The Moscow-Kyiv flight was one of the most frequent requests among users of online ticket sales services; about 100 thousand passengers travel on this route per month, says Janis Dzenis from Aviasales. According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, in the three quarters of 2015, 800 thousand people were transported in the Ukrainian direction.

According to Tutu.ru analysts, the share of foreign air carriers on the Ukrainian route is Velavia, Turkish Airlines, LOT - Polish Airlines, Air Baltic - until recently accounted for less than 1% of the total number of tickets purchased. Behind last days their share by date of sale increased to almost 14%, by date of departure - to 25%.

These carriers will share 7-8 billion rubles. per year, at the beginning of October, Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov estimated the total revenue of Russian and Ukrainian companies from direct flights. Moreover, two-thirds of the losses will fall on Russian airlines: according to the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, national carriers served only 30% of passengers on the Russian route.

List of 20 Russian airlines, which Ukraine has banned from flying into the country since October 25, was published in mid-September. It included Aeroflot and its subsidiaries (“Russia”, “ Donavia " and "Orenburg Airlines"), " Transaero ", "Siberia", " Ural Airlines» and other smaller carriers. All of them were on the list because they ignore the Ukrainian authorities’ ban on flights from Russia to Crimea. Russian authorities took retaliatory measures on September 28.

About 10 million Russians visited Ukraine in 2013, according to Rostourism data. In 2014, this figure decreased to 2.7 million. In the first half of 2015 - to 800 thousand people.

Russia and Egypt will strive to resume charter flights to popular Egyptian resorts in the near future. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated this at a press conference following negotiations with the President of Egypt.

Details are in the material of the ATOR Bulletin.

“We discussed the issue of full-fledged air services and tourist exchanges. In April, direct flights on the Moscow - Cairo route were resumed. We discussed the issue of resuming charter flights on popular airlines among Russians. tourist destinations- Hurghada and Sharm El-Sheikh. We noted that our Egyptian friends are doing everything necessary to increase the level of security. We will strive to resume as soon as possible charter flights along these routes,” said Vladimir Putin.

According to ATOR sources, the next inspections of Egyptian airports are already included in the schedule of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation. This was confirmed today to the Russian media by the head of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, Evgeniy Dietrich. According to him, Russia and Egypt agreed to send Russian experts to this Middle Eastern country to check security issues related to the problem of resuming direct flights with the resorts of Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh. However, he refrained from answering the question of when such a group would be able to head to Egypt.

According to Egyptian media reports, Russian experts are ready to be received in Hurghada and Sharm. This was stated by sources in the Egyptian Ministry of Aviation. In total, over the past three years since the suspension of air traffic, the Russian Federation has carried out 12 inspections of Egypt’s air harbors. At the same time, the Egyptian Ministry of Aviation insists that “Egypt has fulfilled all the requests of the Russian side to improve security measures and is ready to receive Russian experts at a time when they deem it possible.”

According to ATOR, a number of Russian carriers have permission to fly to Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada. When restrictions on charters to Egypt are lifted, airlines can announce the launch of programs at resorts 15 days after their approval by the Federal Air Transport Agency. According to expert calculations, about 600 charter import flights per month can be delivered to Egyptian destinations in the winter season. This is more than 30% of the estimated volume of charters already planned for the coming winter (about 2,000 flights per month).

In 2017, 94 thousand Russians visited Egypt, who came to the country on their own. The year 2014 turned out to be the highest for the Russian market in terms of volume: then, according to Rosstat, 2.6 million Russians vacationed in Egypt. When charters to Egypt are restored, the Country of the Pyramids can count on 2.5-3 million Russian tourists in year. Alternatives to Egypt in the segment budget holiday, especially in low season, no.

ATOR experts say that if permission is received for direct charter communication with the Red Sea resorts in Egypt, the tourist flow will gain momentum within a month.

 

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