Global trends in the development of aircraft manufacturing enterprises. World market for civil aircraft World market for civil aviation

I have already noted that in 2015 Russia took first place in the world in the production of combat aircraft - see the data here:. Let’s now see how our “probable partners” are doing with this - in the States and Europe, data on them for 2014 is here:

The most popular in serial production last year in the West was the F-35, and the first aircraft was assembled outside the United States - in Italy

Let's look at the data:

USA

F-15 - 15 15 - 8 8 - 14 14 - 14 14 - 12 12

F-16 - 22 22 - 37 37 - 13 13 - 17 17 - 11 11

F-18 49 - 49 48 - 48 48 - 48 44 - 44 35 - 35

F-22 13 - 13 8 - 8 - - - - - - - - -

F-35 8 - 8 28 2 30 32 3 35 34 2 36 42 3 45

TOTAL: 70 37 107 84 47 131 80 30 110 78 33 111 77 26 103

Here you can also add several AC-130Js and the R-8 BPS produced for ourselves and India and note that the F-35 is still not a fully combat-ready fighter.
I would also like to note that the USA does not currently produce UBS - the competition for new machines is just getting underway...

The French Rafale has finally made its way onto the foreign market - orders have been received from Egypt and Qatar

EUROPE: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

"yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything "yourself"export everything

"Gripen" - 12 12 - 6 6 - 6 6 - - - - - -

"Rafal" 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 5 6 11

"Typhoon" 38 10 48 40 - 40 54 10 64 28 12 40 28 12 40

TOTAL: 49 22 71 51 6 57 65 16 81 39 12 51 33 18 51

The table again does not include UBS production - MV.339, MV.346 (in Italy) and Hawk (in Britain, including aircraft kits for India) - about two dozen per year - I do not have exact data.
We should expect an increase in the production of Rafales - due to the appearance of export orders - the first aircraft for Egypt were taken and slightly modified from those intended for the French Air Force.
In 2018, production of Gripenov will resume - this time a new generation.

There are no exact data for China, but we can assume that less than 100 combat aircraft were produced there per year.
Currently in serial production are:
- heavy bombers N-6K (development of Tu-16) - several aircraft are produced per year
- "5th generation" fighter J-20 - small-scale production started - several. units
- variants of Su-27/30/33 - J-11/15/16 - it is impossible to establish the exact production volumes - several. dozens per year
- J-10 fighter (created on the basis of the Israeli closed project "Lavi" - similar to the previous one...
- JH-7 fighter-bomber/front-line bomber
- JF-17 fighter (deep modernization of the MiG-21) - aircraft kits for Pakistan - 16 units, this number should increase to 25 per year
- UBS JL-8/K-8 - actively exported, incl. aircraft kits for assembly in Pakistan
- UBS JL-9 (deep modernization of MiG-21U) - small-scale production
- UBS L-15 (supersonic based on the Yak-130) - small-scale production started
- BPS Y-8Q - BPS (based on a local copy of the An-12) - several. units per year

Besides:
South Korea produces and quite successfully sells its UBS/light fighter F/T-50 - about a dozen per year
India "tortures" its Tejas and Sitara UBS - no more than one and a half dozen per year (in addition to the assembly of the Su-30 and Hawk UBS)
I mentioned Pakistan in the Chinese section
Iran is assembling something like the F-5 there - several pieces a year from various configurations
Brazil produces very good successfully sells the Super Tucano turboprop attack aircraft - a dozen, 2 per year (in addition, the similar Korean KT-1, American AT-802 and T-6 have strike variants - in general, you can bomb with the An-26, for example...)
Japan assembled R-1 BPS for 2-3

The global civil aircraft market is 90% “captured” by the American company Boeing and the European manufacturer Airbus. However, it seems that the hegemony of these companies will soon come to an end. Who is capable of ousting these titans? Which companies and countries are going to get into the fray?

The civil aircraft market is a global growing market without national borders and at the same time is characterized by fierce competition from national manufacturers. Due to the enormous technological challenges and high costs, only a small number of countries and a few large companies work in the aircraft manufacturing industry. Thus, in the market of aircraft manufacturers, competition is oligopolistic in nature, i.e. dominated by a few large international companies, having a strong impact on the entire market.

The leaders in the civil aircraft industry in recent decades have been Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EC), occupying more than 90% of the world market. passenger aircraft, however, the technological development of the industry and the emerging demand patterns in the coming years will lead to the destruction of the already familiar duopoly of Western aircraft manufacturing giants. In this work, we deliberately do not include in the analysis the plight of the domestic aviation industry, which was the subject of another article by the author (Tolkachev S.A. New look of the domestic aviation industry// “Capital of the Country”, 09/01/2010. ), in order to consider in its purest form the tough global market for civil airliners, where Russia is destined for a place on the margins after the inglorious surrender of positions (in fact, like in the First World War) as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the socialist bloc in 1989-1991. One of the forms of indemnity for the supposed “defeat” of the USSR in the Cold War with the West was the surrender to the “winners” of the gigantic civil aircraft market, estimated at that time at 40% of the world market. As will become clear from the further presentation, only on this “democratic” Russia, as the legal successor of the USSR, lost at least 1 trillion in 20 years. dollars (!) or the total value of oil exports for the same period. Therefore, take a serious approach to analyzing the global airliner market with the participation of fragments of the mighty Soviet aircraft industry, which today is timidly knocking on the door either with unfinished late Soviet developments (Tu-204, Tu-334, An-148), or with generics of Western models (Sukhoi Superjet 100, MS-21), I just don’t want to.

1. Main segments of the civil airliner market

All produced in the world civil aircraft, intended for mass transportation of passengers, are divided into the following segments depending on the type of fuselage and flight range:

1) medium and long-range wide-body aircraft:

The fuselage diameter is from 5 to 6 meters. An airplane with two aisles between the seats in the cabin. The row usually ranges from 7 to 10 passenger seats. For comparison, narrow-body aircraft usually have a fuselage diameter of 3-4 meters. IN passenger compartment Wide-body aircraft seats are arranged in 3-5 rows. On average, a wide-body aircraft can carry 300-500 people.

The following wide-body aircraft are currently in operation (Table 1):

Table 1. Major wide-body aircraft in service.

aircraft type	years of manufacture	number of passengers	maximum range	total released
A 300	1972-2007	270	7 000	561
A 310	1982-1997	205-280	9 000	255
IL-86	1980-1997	350	4 600	106
MD-11	1988-2000	298-410	13 400	200
B 747	1969-present	366-524	14 800	1 419
B 767	1982-present	180-375	11 300	1 000
A 340	1991-present	261-475	16 700	374
IL-96	1993-present	300-436	12 000	29
A 330	1994-present	255-295	13 000	671
B 777	1994-present	301-451	17 500	901
A 380	2007-present	525-963	15 400	60
B 787	2009-present	210-350	16 300	7
A 350 (project)	----	270-412	15 700	-----

2) medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft:

The fuselage diameter is up to 4 meters. Compared to wide-body aircraft, narrow-body aircraft carry a much smaller number of passengers and, as a rule, have a shorter flight range. Maximum passenger capacity is 289 people.

Narrow-body aircraft in particular include (Table 2):

The Airbus A320 is the most popular European passenger jet.
The Boeing 737 is the most popular passenger jet in the world.
Il-62 is a narrow-body aircraft with the longest flight range.
Tu-154 is the most popular Soviet passenger jet aircraft,

Table 2. Major narrow-body aircraft in service.

Aircraft type	Years of manufacture	Passengers	Maximum range	Total issued
Caravelle	1959-2005	104-130	1 800	285
IL-62	1966-2010	186	11 000	277
Tu-154	1968-2011	150-180	3 500	1 020
Yak-42 (142)	1977-2002	100-120	4 000	188
MD-80	1980-1998	140-172	4 500	1 191
B 757	1982-2004	200-280	7 200	1 050
B 717 (MD95)	1998-2006	98-106	3 800	156
B 737	1968-present	85-215	6 000	6 285
A 320 (318/319)	1987-present	107-220	6 500	4 181
Tu-204	1990-present	164-212	7 500	66
Tu-334	2000-present	102-138	4 100	5 (test)
Embraer ERJ 195X	2006-present	106-118	3 990	n/a
Bombardier CSeries	plan 2013	100-150	5 500	---
MS-21 (project)	plan 2016	150-212	5 500	---
COMAC C919 (project)	plan 2014	168-190	n/a	---

3) regional aircraft:

Regional aircraft include even smaller ones aircraft. They carry up to 100 passengers over distances of up to 2-3 thousand kilometers. These aircraft can be equipped with both turboprop and turbojet engines. Such aircraft include aircraft of the ERJ, CRJ, ATR, Dash-8 and SAAB families (Table 3).

Table 3. Main types of regional aircraft in service.

Aircraft type	Years of manufacture	Passengers	Maximum range	Total issued
An-24	1962-1979	48	1 000	1367
Yak-40	1966-1981	27-36	1 300	1013
BAe 146/Avro RJ	1987-2003	85-100	2 000	387
Fokker 100	1986-1997	85-119	3 100	238
An-28 (An-38)	1969-present	18-27	900	191
Bombardier DHC-8 (series)	1984-present	37-78	2 500	844 for 2008
ATR 42	1984-present	40-50	1 500	390
ATR 72	1989-present	50-75	1 300	408
Bombardier CRJ (series)	1991-present	50-100	3 800	533
Embraer ERJ 145 (series)	1999-present	35-50	3 000	1000 for 2007
An-140	1999 - present	52	2 400	12
IL-114	2001-present	64	1 500	16
Embraer E-Jet (series)	2002-present	78-100	4 600	660
Sukhoi Superjet 100	2008-present	68-98 (130)	4 500	8
An-148 (158)	2009-present	70-99	6 200	13
ARJ21 (China)	2008	70-100	3 700	1 (experience)
Mitsubishi RegionalJet (project)	2014 plan	70-90	3 000	---
Tu-324 (414) project	no data	52-76	3 500	---

4) local planes:

The smallest class of passenger aircraft is local planes designed to transport a small number of passengers (from 20) over distances of up to 1000 kilometers. They are most often equipped with turboprop or piston engines. The most common aircraft of this class are produced by Cessna and Beechcraft.

For a better understanding, we present comparative table 4, which includes all segments of civil airliners.

Table 4. Segments of the passenger aircraft market and their projected capacity (in kind and value) for the period 2005-2024.

2. Main companies participating in the civil airliner market

On the market passenger aircraft manufacturing historically dominated by American and European manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are the largest manufacturers of civil aircraft in the world.

Airbus S.A.S (pronounced Airbus) is one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies, producing passenger, cargo and military transport aircraft of the same name. The company's headquarters are located in Toulouse, France. In 2001, according to French law, it was merged into a joint stock company or “S.A.S.” (French Société par Actions Simplifiée - simplified joint stock company). Airbus's sole shareholder is EADS. Airbus has a staff of about 50 thousand people and is concentrated mainly in four European countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, and Spain. The final assembly of products is carried out at the company's factories in the cities of Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany).

Model range of civilian Airbus aircraft started with the A300 twin-engine aircraft. The shortened version of the A300 is known as the A310. Based on the lack of success of the A300, Airbus began developing the A320 project with an innovative fly-by-wire control system. The A320 was a great commercial success for the company. The A318 and A319 are shortened versions of the A320, which, with some modifications, are offered by Airbus for the Airbus CorporateJet market. A stretched version of the A320 is known as the A321 and competes with the later Boeing 737 models.

Inspired by the success of the A320 family, management Airbus decided to develop a family of even larger airliners. This is how the twin-engine A330 and four-engine A340 appeared. One of the key features of the new aircraft is the new wing design; it has a greater relative thickness, which increases its structural efficiency and internal fuel volumes. The Airbus A340-500 has a flight range of 16,700 kilometers, which is the second longest flight range of commercial jet aircraft after the Boeing 777-200LR (range 17,446 km).

The company is especially proud of its proprietary fly-by-wire technology, unified cockpit and on-board systems used across all families of proprietary aircraft; they make crew training and retraining for new models much easier.

The company's latest development, the A350XWB, is designed to compete with new model Boeing - 787.

The Boeing Company– one of the world's largest manufacturers of aviation, space and military equipment.

The headquarters is located in Chicago (Illinois, USA).

The company's main production facilities are located in the following cities: Everett (Washington State), California, St. Louis (Missouri).

The company produces a wide range of civil and military aircraft, being, along with Airbus, the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. In addition, Boeing produces a wide range of military aerospace equipment (including helicopters) and conducts large-scale space programs (for example, the CST-100 spacecraft).

The company's factories are located in 67 countries. The company supplies its products to 145 countries. Boeing works with more than 5,200 suppliers in 100 countries.

In 2001, a division of Boeing International was formed, which controls the company's work in 70 countries, except for the US market, where it is responsible for the development and implementation of the company's global development strategy. It determines and evaluates competitive advantages and opportunities in the host country for the development of intellectual resources and technologies, development of partnerships and business.

3. Comparative characteristics of Airbus and Boeing production

The companies operate primarily in the narrow-body and wide-body short- and medium-haul aircraft segments.

Below is a comparative description of the production of certain aircraft models by year.

? B-737 and A320. Medium-capacity aircraft for medium-haul airlines, each type has many modifications. IN last years The A320 sells in larger volumes than Boeing products.

Table 5. Deliveries of AirbusA320 and Boeing 737 aircraft for 1988-2010

	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000
A320	401	402	386	367	339	289	233	232	236	257	241
B-737	398	372	290	330	302	212	202	173	223	299	281

	1999	1998	1997	1996	1995	1994	1993	1992	1991	1990	1989	1988
A320	222	168	127	72	56	64	71	111	119	58	58	16
B-737	320	281	135	76	89	121	152	218	215	174	146	165

B-747 and A380. Large capacity aircraft for medium and long haul airlines. Asian airlines, traditional users of the 747, are the main customers of the A380. Currently, B-747s are produced in quantities of no more than 10 units per year, there are very few new orders for passenger aircraft (out of 99 B-747s ordered since the beginning of 2006, only 27 are passenger ones). At the same time, the A380 order portfolio has increased by 60 passenger aircraft since the beginning of 2006.
B-767 and A330. The Airbus aircraft has proved more commercially successful in recent years.

Table 6. Deliveries of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 aircraft for 1994-2009.

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999	1998	1997	1996	1995	1994
A330	78	72	68	62	56	47	31	42	35	43	44	23	14	10	30	9
B-767	13	9	12	12	10	9	24	35	40	44	44	47	42	43	37	41

B-777 and A340. Both aircraft appeared at the same time, but due to the greater fuel efficiency of the B-777 and a number of other factors, the American company sold twice as many aircraft as their European competitors.

Table 7. Deliveries of Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 aircraft for 1993-2009

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999	1998	1997	1996	1995	1994	1993
B-777	88	61	75	65	40	36	39	47	61	55	83	74	59	32	13	0	0
A-340	8	13	11	24	24	28	33	16	22	19	20	24	33	28	19	25	22

There are very few new orders for the A340. It is assumed that the A350 will compete with the B-777, but the development of the latter is still very far from completion.

Embraer (Empresa Brasileirade Aeronautica) is a Brazilian aircraft manufacturing company, one of the leaders in the global market of passenger regional aircraft. Headquarters in São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo.

Founded in 1969 as a state-controlled company. In the 1990s, it faced a serious crisis, after which it was completely privatized in 1994 (the state was left with only a “golden share”, which gave it veto power over the supply of military aircraft).

The company specializes in regional airliners and produces commercial, corporate, military, and agricultural aircraft. Production facilities are concentrated in Brazil.

By 2010, the company shared third or fourth place with Canada's Bombardier among the largest suppliers of commercial airliners, behind Boeing and Airbus. In 2009, the company delivered more than 240 aircraft to commercial customers.

The number of personnel is 17 thousand people (2005).

Embraer Jet - a family of twin-engine narrow-body medium-range passenger aircraft produced by the Brazilian company Embraer. Includes 4 modifications: E-170, E-175, E-190 and E-195. The E-Jet was first unveiled at the Le Bourget Air Show in 1999. Serial production began in 2002.

Table 8. Deliveries of Embraer E-jet 190, 195 aircraft in total for 2005-2010, pcs.

2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
39	37	32	52	33	23

Bombardier Inc. (Bombardier), Canadian engineering company. The headquarters is located in Montreal, Quebec.

The company was founded in Valcourt (Quebec) in 1942 under the name L´Auto-NeigeBombardierLimitée by Joseph-Armand Bombardier. The company has been involved in aircraft manufacturing since the mid-1980s. In 2003, the company sold its Bombardier Recreational Products division, which produced snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles, jet skis, and motor boats, concentrating on railway and aircraft engineering.

The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of business aircraft, regional aircraft, as well as railway equipment and trams. The company's main divisions are the world's largest manufacturer of railway equipment, Bombardier Transportation, and Bombardier Aerospace, the world's third largest manufacturer of civil aircraft after Boeing and Airbus. In 2008, Bombardier employed 59.8 thousand people.

Bombardier Canadair RegionalJet (CRJ) is a family of regional passenger jet narrow-body aircraft. The aircraft made its first flight on May 10, 1991. The CRJ-100 became the first modern aircraft among 50-seater aircraft. In terms of speed, the aircraft can be compared with larger aircraft, while its efficiency is quite consistent with its class. The family consists of several modifications, differing in fuselage length and flight range: CRJ100, CRJ 200, CRJ 700, CRJ 900.

The CRJ 900 model is designed to carry 88 passengers. The Bombardier CRJ 900 made its first flight on February 21, 2001. In addition to the standard one, there are several other versions of the aircraft - extended and for long-distance flights.

The Bombardier CRJ 1000 program was launched by Bombardier Aerospace on February 19, 2007. First flown in September 2008, the 100-seat CRJ1000 is the latest addition to the Canadian Regional Jet family.

Table 9. Deliveries of Bombardier CRJ 900, 1000 aircraft for 2005-2010, pcs.

2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
57	48	78	92	82	87

4. Growth forecasts for the global civil airliner market

According to Airbus forecasts, in the next 20 years, airlines around the world will buy almost 25 thousand new mainline aircraft for a total of 2.9 trillion. dollars. Of these, about 10 thousand will be needed to replace the aging fleet, and another 15 thousand will be needed to further increase transportation capacity. Moreover, narrow-body airliners will be in greatest demand. About 18 thousand of them will be sold for 1.27 trillion. dollars, which will amount to 70% of the total volume of all supplies in kind. As a result, by 2030 the global airline fleet will almost double and exceed 30 thousand aircraft. The high demand for new aircraft is driven by the growing need to replace aircraft with low fuel efficiency, as well as the dynamic development of new markets and the growth of passenger traffic on existing routes.

Boeing forecasts that the market for new commercial aircraft will be worth $3.6 trillion over the next 20 years. USD Market growth will be accompanied by the recovery of the global economy after the crisis and increased demand for new and more efficient aircraft. According to the current market overview 2011, by 2029 the market capacity will be 30,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft.

Table 10. Future market value (in 2009 prices) and aircraft deliveries by region by 2029.

Region	Market value of supplies in billions of dollars.	Aircraft supplies, pcs.
Pacific Asia region	1 320	10 320
North America	700	7 200
Europe	800	7 190
Near East	390	2 340
Latin America	210	2 180
CIS	90	960
Africa	80	710
Total	3 590	30 900

The table shows that in the long term, the volume passenger transportation will increase by 5.3% per year under the influence of economic growth in regions with different structures of demand for aircraft. The fastest-growing segment of the global market will continue to be single-aisle aircraft, driven by the explosion of low-cost airlines, the development of new markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia, and continued volatility in fuel prices. The growth rate of the narrow-body aircraft segment has outpaced the wide-body segment over the past ten years. This gap will continue to widen as airlines phase out older generation aircraft.

The highest growth rates are observed in the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the undisputed leader.

Today, this region provides about 1/3 of the world's air transport. As a result of the growth of this market, by 2029, the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 43% of inbound, outbound and domestic traffic volumes. China alone will need 4,300 new airliners over the next 20 years.

Domestic airlines will also be the most active buyers of wide-body aircraft, generating about 40% of total demand.

Another dynamic market is the Middle East, which is experiencing some of the highest air traffic growth in recent years. Middle Eastern airlines have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of their geographic location, the region's demographics, the acquisition of modern aircraft and well-thought-out investment and business development plans. To the Middle East for the period 2011-2029. 2,340 aircraft will be delivered.

More detailed data on the distribution of airliner supplies different types The following table provides the main regions.

Table 11. Aircraft deliveries by region according to size for 2011-2029.

Region	Regional (pieces)	With one pass (pcs.)	With two passes (pcs.)	Large (pieces)	Total (pieces)
Pacific-Asia region	470	6 710	2 840	300	10 320
North America	800	5 180	1 180	40	7 200
Europe	310	5 380	1 340	160	7 190
Near East	70	1 100	1 000	170	2 340
Latin America	20	1 800	350	10	2 180
CIS	200	570	160	30	960
Africa	50	420	230	10	710
Total	1 920	21 160	7 100	720	30 900

5. Increased competition and the end of duopoly

Now the total portfolio of firm orders from Airbus and Boeing for narrow-body aircraft is approaching 3 thousand units, which is only 16% of the forecast demand for these aircraft over a twenty-year period. Thus, the global market for long-haul aircraft has all the prerequisites for the emergence of at least one more major player, which, under certain circumstances, may well displace the giants of the world aircraft industry. The duopoly is slowly coming to an end. Of all the aircraft manufacturing companies in the world, the Canadians were the first to challenge the Big Two - Airbus and Boeing. Five years ago, Bombardier decided to begin developing the C-Series narrow-body aircraft, designed to carry 110–130 passengers. Initially, the implementation of this project was hampered by the intractability of aircraft engine manufacturers, who, according to some experts, under pressure from Airbus and Boeing, did not show a desire to create new engine modifications specifically for the new Bombardier aircraft. They motivated their decision by the narrowness of the sales market. But thanks to the efforts of the Canadian authorities and the position of Pratt & Whitney Canada, as well as the changed market situation, this problem was ultimately resolved. Having received financial support from the province of Quebec, Pratt & Whitney nevertheless developed a new family of Pure Power engines. These are exactly the units that Irkut will use on its MS-21. But unlike the MC-21 program, the C-Series project has already passed more than half of its journey. In the middle of last year, Bombardier presented working drawings of the SC100 test aircraft, and the final design of the left fuselage skin of the aircraft was shown at the Saint-Laurent plant in Montreal. Now at this enterprise the installation of composite panels is already in full swing. tail section liner.

The new aircraft should take off in 2012, and the first deliveries of the aircraft to airlines are scheduled for 2013. But, despite all the advantages of the new airliners, Bombardier cannot yet boast of a large portfolio of orders for them: Canadians have only 90 firm contracts for the purchase of SC100 and the same number of options. The main customers of these aircraft are the Lufthansa Group, the Irish leasing company LCI and the American Republic Holdings. But Bombardier pins its main hopes on Chinese market. The Canadian company predicts it will become the second largest market for commercial aviation within the next 20 years. To achieve this goal, the company decided to cooperate with Chinese aircraft manufacturing enterprises.

China has its own project to create a long-range narrow-body aircraft - the C919. And this project is nothing more than China's long-term plan to destroy the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. The name of the model and its digital code have enormous symbolic meaning for the Chinese. The first number “9” can be interpreted as “the long time it takes to overcome a difficult route”, and “19” means that the first Chinese mainline aircraft will be able to carry 190 passengers. In addition to the basic version, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) began designing two more models - for 156 and 168 passengers.

Within a few months, COMAC expects to complete the overall technical project aircraft and select suppliers of all key systems. This process has been actively going on for the last year and a half.

COMAC plans for the first flight of the C919 to take place in 2014, and commercial operation of the airliner will begin in 2016. In total, the Chinese intend to produce 2,500 new aircraft within 20 years. True, COMAC does not yet have paid firm orders for the C919. But there is no doubt that they will appear in the near future.

The expansion of three new long-haul aircraft manufacturers into the market at once forced Airbus and Boeing to begin full-scale preparations to repel the attack. Airbus has decided to launch a re-engine program for the A320 family of airliners, which, after being equipped with new engines, will be called NEO. The European concern intends to invest about 1 billion euros in this project. It is planned to install the same engines of the LEAP-X and PurePower family on the new aircraft. Moreover, Airbus is going to equip its modernized airliners with new wingtips, which will further reduce fuel consumption by 3-4%. Thus, the total fuel savings will be about 18%. The design of the A320 NEO airframe is 95% similar to the currently operating aircraft of this family. The European concern will only have to strengthen the wing and pylons. Remotorized aircraft will appear on the market in 2016 and will cost only $6 million more than their predecessors. In total, Airbus plans to sell about 4 thousand A320 NEO. And it is possible that this plan will be implemented sooner or later. In a month and a half of sales, Airbus has already acquired three major clients. The launch customer for the A320 NEO was Virgin America, which signed a contract for the purchase of 30 aircraft. And soon its example was followed by the Indian IndiGo and the Malaysian AirAsia, which entered into preliminary agreements to purchase more than 200 new aircraft. This caused EADS (Airbus parent company) shares to rise 5% on the day. The company's management is confident that the residual value of the existing A320 models will not suffer much, but the newly formed competitors of the European concern will have a hard time.

Boeing considered the launch of the NEO project a belated response to its Next Generation family of aircraft, which have been in production for more than ten years. At the same time, Boeing intends to create a new family of aircraft in the near future to replace the existing versions of the Boeing 737 NG. The company understands Airbus' expectations from the release of the new NEO model, but does not see the need for such aircraft; the company's strategy, in accordance with the expectations of its customers, is aimed at designing a new aircraft.

The Brazilian Embraer is also considering the possibility of creating a new mainline aircraft for 110–130 passengers. The company is waiting for Boeing to make a final decision on the release of its new airliner, and only then will it consider whether it should pursue a competing project.
***

The modern aviation industry is a global network structure that includes thousands of specialized suppliers of various components and manufacturing services located around the world, incl. and in Russia.

The current state of the aviation industry market is characterized by a stage of stabilization. It is characterized by an established mature market for the products of the relevant industry. This means that the aviation industry market is segmented:

medium and long-range wide-body aircraft;
medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft;
regional jets;
local planes.

An important feature of the state of the civil airliner market today is the continuous increase in the role of innovation to achieve success: changing situations in the external environment require a reconsideration of the role and place of innovation in the activities of companies. An analysis of the development trends of the world market in the 20th century revealed the main feature: market development consists of a continuous increase in variability, instability and unpredictability.

The basis of the development strategies of the world's leading civil aircraft manufacturers is the constant technological improvement of their products and the reduction of operating costs of the proposed aircraft models, including fuel consumption and repair and maintenance costs, as well as the development of deep and long-term relationships with airlines by providing them with comprehensive operational support , modernization and renewal of the aircraft fleet. At the present stage, the range of products manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, as well as Embraer and Bombardier, is largely similar when compared by characteristics such as size, flight range and cost of the aircraft.

The American concern Boeing has raised its forecast for the growth of the market for new passenger aircraft. On Thursday in London, the company presented its annual Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft required at $5.2 trillion. The concern predicts demand for 36,770 new aircraft over the next 20 years. The previous forecast was about 35 thousand aircraft worth $4.8 trillion.

“This is a strong and stable market,” said VP of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “With the introduction of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft, air travel growth is being driven by customers who want the ability to fly wherever they want, whenever they want.”

Demand figures have been boosted this year by the single-aisle aircraft market, which is forecast to become the fastest-growing and most dynamic segment as low-cost airlines continue to enter the market. This segment will require 25,680 new aircraft worth $2.56 trillion, representing 70% of projected demand.

“Given the stunning order and delivery forecast, we see 160-passenger aircraft as the core of the single-aisle market,” Tinseth said. - This market is undoubtedly gravitating towards this dimension, which allows you to combine operational efficiency with flexibility route network. The Next-Generation 737-800 and new 737 MAX 8 aircraft offer our customers the highest revenue potential in this category."

Boeing's main competitor, the European aircraft concern Airbus, is also betting on the narrow-body market. Sales of the flagship A321 model in the narrow-body aircraft segment increased by 20% and now account for about half of the total volume of narrow-body aircraft produced by the concern.

Demand for other types of aircraft will also increase. The forecast for sales in the regional airliner segment increased by 25%, to $100 billion, or 2,490 units. In 2013, the company forecast deliveries of regional jets at $80 billion, or 2,020 units.

Sales will also increase in the small wide-body and medium wide-body aircraft segments. At the same time, the number of orders in the segment of small wide-body aircraft, despite the growth in market volume, will decrease from 4,530 to 4,520 units.

Unlike the small and medium wide-body aircraft segment, the market for large wide-body aircraft with a passenger capacity of more than 400 seats will shrink, Boeing analysts predict. The concern expects a reduction in sales from $280 billion to $240 billion, and the total number of aircraft sold will be reduced from 760 to 620 units. According to Boeing estimates, the capacity of an average wide-body airliner for two aisles will increase by 20 seats in the next 20 years, and a narrow-body - by 10. Airplanes will become longer, aisles will become narrower, and the distances between seats will be reduced.

Over the next two decades, the market for new aircraft will gradually become more geographically balanced. At the same time, the main driver for market growth will be the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific market, including China, will lead in the total number of aircraft supplied to the region. According to Boeing analysts, in 2033 the total size of the Asia-Pacific aircraft fleet will increase from the current 5,470 to 15,220 aircraft. The CIS market will also grow significantly. Over the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operating in the CIS will increase from 1,180 to 1,820 units.

The American aviation concern's immediate plans include the presentation of a new generation of the medium wide-body Boeing 787-9, which is 7 m longer than the current top model Dreamliner 787-8 and can accommodate 40 more passengers. The aircraft should be presented to the general public for the first time early next week at the Farnborough Air Show. Boeing's main competitor, Airbus, will also present a new long-haul aircraft, the A350, with deliveries scheduled to begin at the end of 2014.

had a beneficial effect on her aviation market. The demand for new aircraft has noticeably revived, since one of the main problems of airlines continues to be an outdated fleet of equipment. It is expected that in the coming years more than 1,000 aircraft of European and domestic production (including those produced in the CIS countries) will be purchased.

The leaders of world aircraft production (Airbus and Boeing) predict two types of development of air passenger transportation. According to the vision of Airbus specialists, a hub-and-spoke model (hubs and spokes) will be implemented, which essentially means the following. From regional airports, medium and small planes take passengers to a large hub, from where long-distance flights are carried out to similar centers of the world.

Boeing analysts see a different path of development, proposing a point-to-point model, that is, the passenger gets to their destination with minimal transfers. Both companies presented long-haul aircraft designs to the market that would enable the implementation of the proposed models for the development of air travel.

The Russian aviation market implements both models. The number of point-to-point flights within the country will inevitably increase, and hub-and-spoke flights will be carried out international flights. Already, the demand for wide-body aircraft is increasing, and the demand for long-distance international flights, according to experts, will grow over the next 15-18 years to 5% annually. Income growth for citizens, liberalization transport laws and cheaper services will also affect the domestic aviation market, which will also grow.

The situation now and the near future

As of today, there are about two hundred airlines operating in Russia. However, by 2025, a maximum of a couple of dozen of them will remain successful. Small regional companies continue to go bankrupt, since the majority of them are made up of obsolete (still Soviet) aircraft received from them, which have practically exhausted their flight life. But such companies cannot afford to purchase new equipment, and will be forced to leave the aviation market.

Only large network airlines can count on success in the future. They still operate successfully today, have an established network of routes that are profitable and familiar to passengers, and have programs for updating their fleet of vehicles. Among the successful airlines that represent the country's aviation market are Aeroflot, S7, UTair, AiRUnion, Transaero and some others. The share of passenger traffic of each by 2020 will be at least 10 million people annually. It is possible that closely related companies may consolidate in the future, which will allow them to gain considerable advantages and profitably purchase new aircraft.

Already, the most successful airlines in Russia are abandoning the secondary aircraft market, along with the world's leading airlines, purchasing the latest developments from aircraft manufacturers. The only drawback for the aviation market and the domestic economy as a whole is that the Russian aviation industry will not be able to present a decent competitive aircraft for medium-haul flights sooner than in 10-12 years (with the possible exception of the Sukhoi SuperJet).

How the regional air transportation market will change

It is in the domestic aviation market for regional transportation that many experts see the future of aviation. Here the main competitor continues to be the railway: cheaper, simpler, no passport or face control required, no need for advance registration. However, it is expected that over time the price of air tickets will become closer to railway tickets and more affordable, and security measures will be tightened at train stations. Of course, even the rise in price train tickets will leave their positions 20-30% more profitable, but an absolute advantage railway will leave.

If taking the train is only slightly more convenient than going through security on a plane, and the ticket prices are comparable, then many passengers will ultimately prefer planes. Their undoubted advantage in the speed of travel to the desired location is undeniable. It is from this moment that air travel by small aircraft over short distances will boost the Russian aviation market, when half-forgotten flights between neighboring cities regions.

There is hope that the expected gigantic potential of the domestic air transportation market will prevent the authorities from handing it over to foreign carriers. Today they do not have access to the domestic Russian aviation market; there is an agreement at the intergovernmental level regulating air transportation between Russia and other countries. The number of flights is clearly recorded and even a specific carrier from the country is determined. The leading position is occupied by Aeroflot, which is assigned carrier powers on most foreign routes. However, after joining the WTO it will not be easy for him to maintain his position.

Aircraft manufacturing involves the design and creation of full-fledged aircraft and its components. The few and very expensive products are subsequently used for both civilian and military purposes.

There is no doubt that the most convenient means of transport for traveling is an airplane. About significance aircraft in matters of national defense there is no need to speak. All this makes the aircraft manufacturing industry a priority and places the world's largest aircraft manufacturing companies in a special category.

Aviation giants

The aircraft industry today uses almost all mechanical engineering products. In addition, all innovative scientific and technical processes are undoubtedly used in it. It is logical to assume that if a state is able to locate such a production complex on its territory, this means its financial solvency and the ability to show itself as a reliable business partner.

Direct rental of aircraft can become interesting idea for a startup. A striking example of such a business is described.

The constant development of the industry involves the use of super-new information technologies (we are talking not only about the manufacture of aircraft, but also their components). From the economic side, this is, of course, a definite and very serious financial investment. On the other hand, every state needs the aviation industry. This formulation of the question makes it necessary to provide assistance to such enterprises from the state.

Below is a list of the ten largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world. The Forbes rating was based on the market value of enterprises, which placed them in the top 10.

Table 1. Rating of the top 10 largest aircraft manufacturing companies

	Place in the general Forbes list	Name of company	Country of location	Market value for 2016, billion dollars
		Rolls-Royce Holdings	Great Britain

			Great Britain

		Northrop Grumman

		General Dynamics
			Netherlands

		The Boeing Company

10th place: we start with Rolls-Royce Holdings

A division of a well-known company specializes in the production of engines for civil aviation. The organization has been working in the aircraft sector since 1904. Over more than a century of history, the corporation has earned worldwide recognition and the desire of foreign customers to cooperate with it. In this regard, Russia is not lagging behind: it is Rolls-Royce that offers to supply its engines for the future Russian-Chinese long-haul airliner.

The company employs 54,100 people. Annual revenue last year was $20.18 billion.

9th place: French company Thales

The $20.6 billion capital value of this company is deservedly due to the diligent work that dates back to 1918. Today the organization is busy producing information systems of aerospace importance. The company's products include components for military aviation, electronics for fighter aircraft.

The organization is named after Thales of Miletus, an ancient Greek philosopher. Offices are located in more than 50 countries, and the total staff of all employees reaches 68,000 people. Sales revenue for 2016 was $16.5 billion.

8th place: British company BAE Systems plc

BAE Systems is essentially a British defense company promoting its products in the aerospace field. It works with foreign customers (mainly from the USA) through its subsidiary BAE Systems Inc. The British Aerospace (BAe) division works directly with the aerospace environment.

The organization actively lobbies its interests in the former Soviet republics. For example, since 2001 it has owned 49% of the national Kazakh carrier Air Astana.

According to the latest data, the organization employs 88,200 people worldwide. The headquarters itself is located in London. Now about the financial component: in 2016, the corporation’s revenue amounted to $24 billion.

7th place: French corporation Safran

Aerospace and aviation equipment are among several areas of this French industrial conglomerate. The company mainly specializes in commercial and military engines, as well as the restoration and repair of jet engine models. There is also a turbo direction - turboshaft engines for helicopters and turbines for rockets. In addition, other components for aircraft and engines are manufactured.

In total, the company employs 57,495 people. Revenue for 2016 was $18.23 billion.

6th place: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)

This corporation was organized in 1994 and united Northrop Corporation and Grumman Corporation. Aviation and space are not the only areas of its activity. As equipment for this, the company produces military fighters and even airships (Airlander 10).

Northrop Grumman Corporation received revenue for 2016 equivalent to $24.51 billion. In total, this organization employs 67,000 people.

5th place: Raytheon

The top five starts with the American manufacturer, which receives more than 90% of its revenue from defense orders. The products are quite specific in nature - these are radio-controlled missiles and guidance systems, components of space systems, guidance technologies.

Raytheon's name is interestingly translated - "Divine Ray", which is associated with the initial production of ray tubes since 1922. Raytheon retrained itself as an aviation-related enterprise during World War II. The project was the development of protection against Japanese kamikaze attacks, which turned into large-scale production.

Today, Raytheon Corporation employs 63,000 people. Revenue for 2016 was $24.07 billion.

4th place: American General Dynamics

One of the giants in the production of military and aerospace technical arsenal is the fifth on the planet in concluding contracts related to the supply of aircraft for defense needs.

The organization is a supplier of powerful information systems, which include intercontinental missiles, satellite data processing systems and similar equipment. For a long time, General Dynamics collaborated with NASA.

In addition to aerospace products, the company is also involved in the production of naval and combat systems. The leading role here lies in the development of information technologies. In total, the organization employs 98,800 employees, who generated revenue of $31.35 billion for the past 2016.

3rd place: Bronze Dutch Airbus Group (formerly EADS)

The organization today is better known under the name Airbus Group. It is the largest aerospace corporation in Europe, with headquarters not only in the Dutch capital, but also in Paris and Ottobrunn.

The company is relatively young, formed by the merger of other large specialized organizations in 2000. EADS was renamed Airbus Group only in 2013. At the same time, management announced a restructuring, after which three divisions are expected: Airbus will engage in commercial aircraft manufacturing, Airbus Helicopters will specialize in the production of helicopters, and Airbus Defense & Space will become a platform for the production of military and space equipment.

The company's revenue for 2016 was $73.7 billion. The Airbus Group employs 133,000 people.

2nd place: silver medalist Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global company that specializes in the defense and space segment of the market. Prominent examples of production include fighter-bombers (5th generation F-35) and models of F-22 class fighters.

The company's main client is the native American government, which brings in approximately 82% of revenue. The rest is provided by international contracts (work under the arms sales program). The number of commercial orders is only 1% of revenue. The company's full-year profit for 2016 is $79.9 billion.

In total, this organization employs 97,000 people. The headquarters is located in the US state of Maryland, in the city of Bethesda.

1st place: undoubted leader Boeing

The headquarters of this largest global manufacturer is located in Chicago. Specialization - production of aviation, military and even space equipment. The military arsenal is handled by the Boeing Integrated Defense Systems division, and the civilian direction is under the wing of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

In addition, one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies in the world produces a wide range of military equipment (including helicopters) and participates in large-scale space programs (an example is the CST-100 spacecraft).

The company's capitalization is $108.9 billion, and revenue for the past year is $94.6 billion. Today this structure employs 150,500 people. Factories operate in 67 countries, and goods are supplied to 145 countries. And that’s not all the numbers: the organization’s partners are more than 5,200 suppliers from 100 countries.

Features of the aircraft industry

Initially, the aircraft industry was formed as an industry of a military nature. They began to think about releasing civilian objects later. This made the aircraft manufacturing sector monetized and gave certain specific features:

The production of military products is determined by the military orders of one’s own state and the possibilities of world export supplies.
The production of civil aircraft depends entirely on the receipt of national and global orders. Naturally, these figures can fluctuate greatly depending on demand.

The production of airliners may well become a domestic import substitution program. Find out more detailed information it is possible in this article.

A separate issue concerns the cost of production itself. It may be surprising that back in the mid-90s it was valued at 4 times less than the automobile industry, i.e., only $250 billion. Everything is explained simply: airplanes cannot be called a mass product, they are piece production. The annual production of civil aviation objects hardly exceeds the volume of 1000 pieces; for the military structure, the numbers may be even less, only 600 pieces per year.

The situation is somewhat saved by the well-established production of so-called light aircraft. The great demand for them is also due to their affordable price - from 20 to 80 thousand dollars. Most often, such products are used for educational, sports or business purposes.

The high knowledge intensity of the entire process is also of great importance. Typically, the development of any aircraft (both military and civilian) can take from 5 to 10 years. High prices for the design and creation of aircraft objects are so large that few companies in the world can afford such activities:

Position on the Russian market

The leader of the domestic aircraft industry is the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC). It was created in 2006 and united all previously existing aircraft design organizations in the country.

The corporation's revenue is 295 billion rubles. During its operation, more than 200 aircraft were delivered. In recent years, special emphasis has been placed on the development of the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100) line. In 2016 alone, 34 deliveries of this aircraft model took place. Today, more than 50 such machines are in operation, and 13 of them are used outside of Russia.

The aircraft industry in Russia can be considered as an object of venture business. Read more about this concept.

Another promising direction of UAC is the new generation of medium-haul airliners MC21, the first flight tests of which took place last year. There is a demand for them: immediately after the tests, 175 orders and applications for the production of such equipment were received. UAC plans to produce 72 such airliners per year.

It might be useful to read: