Tu 154 plane crash official version. What happened over the Black Sea . What do we know about the pilots and the technical condition of the aircraft?

What happened to the TU-154 plane from Sochi: terrorist attack or disaster? Last news about the investigation of the tragedy over the Black Sea - what is hidden behind the fall of the Ministry of Defense liner? The published last words of the co-pilot “Flaps! Commander, we are falling! " prompted the public, as well as many experts, to believe that the cause of the plane crash was a crew error. However, professional pilots have a hard time believing this version. What happened on board the fateful RA-85572? Was it shot down from a ground-based MANPADS, could explosives have been placed there?


Because of what's in the news last years A huge number of fakes have appeared, many Russians quite rightly do not believe in the official versions. And there are fair reasons for this. After all, because of the Russian operation in Syria, a Boeing has already been shot down over the Sinai, it is quite logical that the authorities would not really want people to suffer again.

Albeit not entirely civilian, but still not directly related to military operations.

The results of the investigation have not yet been advertised, which further exaggerates the situation.

Version No. 1: TU-154 was shot down or blown up

This version is supported by the fact that the crew did not report the incident to the ground. At the time of the disaster, he was at an altitude of approximately 250 meters, which is quite enough to be hit by a hand-held man-portable anti-aircraft missile system.

In addition, experts note a large spread of debris. When falling into water, the speed of the fuselage fragments is quickly lost, so a large dispersion radius can only occur during an explosion in the air. Official sources talk about current, but what kind of current can move large pieces weighing several tons? And where does the current come from at the resort town?

There are also recordings from CCTV cameras that recorded a flash in the sky at the time of the TU-154 crash. Perhaps, of course, this is the headlights of a capsizing airliner, but then where are the strobe and wing lights? And the headlights on the Tu-154 turn off and retract at 100 meters, the plane took off towards the sea. So it is very doubtful that these were headlights.

Local time of the disaster: 5 hours 27 minutes. It’s dark on the coast - the terrorists could easily fire a missile and then escape.

The possibility of an explosion cannot be ruled out, even though the airport is well checked, but there have already been cases of aircraft being blown up in Russian skies.


Version No. 2: pilot error

The fact that an experienced pilot could confuse the landing gear and flap levers is complete nonsense. Yes, they are located next to each other in the Tu-154, but they have different strokes. The landing gear is retracted immediately after lifting off the runway, with a confident climb. Flaps - after reaching a certain speed. It is doubtful that at an altitude of 250 meters the commander suddenly remembered that the landing gear was not retracted, and the co-pilot pulled the flaps. Not only do you have to be extremely drunk, but you also have to be high on spice.

If the flaps were mixed up with the landing gear immediately after takeoff, then the plane (which was supposedly still overloaded) would not have gained 250 meters, but would have immediately sunk to the ground.

The retraction of the flaps is accompanied by the remark “retracted synchronously”, as is the command to retract the landing gear. That is, all the actions of the pilots in the cockpit are controlled by each other and duplicated by voice, making it extremely difficult to confuse something.

Another argument - well, just The co-pilot couldn't have made such a stupid mistake. During training, pilots are trained to reflexes for loss of speed, failures, and so on. Interactions in the Tu-154 crew have been so refined over decades of work that it is simply impossible to allow such an obvious failure.

The plane, of course, is very complex, but on takeoff the TU-154 crashed due to an error by the crew at all.

Version No. 3: equipment failure

The fall of the TU-154 in Sochi due to equipment failure is quite likely, since these machines have never been very reliable. Asynchronous flap retraction, for example, could lead to a rollover. Although, again, the crew monitors this; if the flaps are retracted unevenly, they are immediately retracted, the plane stops climbing, and returns to the departure airfield.

The ABSU system or other electronics could have failed, as happened with the “dancing” TU-154 of the Ministry of Defense in Chkalovsky. It was daylight then, the weather was good, and the landing was successful. It’s night now, we’re tired, we might get confused. But then where is the report to the ground?

A more likely version is engine failure under heavy load. But here again, three must fail at once, for example, due to bad fuel. And at the same time there is a chance to land the plane on the water, again, there would be a report.

A terrorist attack by TU-154 in December in Sochi is also possible, but not by explosion, but by sabotage. The car itself is from 1983, but with not so much polish.

Everyone is waiting for the full IAC report with the cause of the disaster to be published, but the fact is that society may never know the real factors. And what really happened to the TU-154 plane from Sochi will forever remain in the FSB archives.

On the morning of December 25, a Tu-154 plane of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which was heading from Sochi to the Khmeimim base in Syria, crashed in the Black Sea. There were 92 people on board the plane, among them were artists from the Alexandrov Song and Dance Ensemble, journalists from Channel One, NTV and Zvezda, and philanthropist Elizaveta Glinka. All of them most likely died.

The Ministry of Defense plane was heading to the Russian airbase in Syrian Latakia. He took off from the Chkalovsky airport near Moscow at 01.38 Moscow time on December 25. The airport duty officer told RBC that “everything was checked” on the plane before takeoff. In the morning he landed at Sochi airport in Adler to refuel. At 05.25 Moscow time, the plane took off again, but disappeared from radar two minutes later.

The official cause of the disaster has not yet been announced. Among the most discussed versions are a technical malfunction of the aircraft, pilot error, sudden interference and a terrorist attack.

Aircraft technical malfunction

An Interfax source in the emergency services stated that the priority is the version “ technical malfunction" The service life of the aircraft is cited in favor of this cause of the disaster: the crashed Tu-154 was produced in 1983, its total flight time was 6689 hours. The flight safety service of the Armed Forces said that the crashed airliner was technically sound. The last time it was repaired was in December 2014; in September of the same year, the aircraft underwent scheduled maintenance.

Since 2013, production of aircraft of this model, which began operation in the 1960s of the last century, has been discontinued. Over the entire history of the Tu-154, more than three thousand people died in accidents on this particular modification. At the same time, experts interviewed by Dozhd call the Tu-154 one of the most reliable aircraft.

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It’s not for nothing that the Tu-154 has been used by aviation for so long, says Air Force Major and instructor pilot Andrei Krasnoperov. According to him, an aircraft of this modification, in the event of a technical malfunction, can glide and land along the coastline, even with the engines not running. The pilot is sure that the plane broke up in the air, otherwise the pilot would have contacted the ground and turned on the distress signal.

In the same time aviation expert Vladimir Kormuzov calls the 30-year-old Tu-154 “morally obsolete”: in civil aviation These aircraft are practically no longer used; they are operated mainly by government agencies. And they have “very little flying time” - the crashed plane flew 26 hours a month, adds Kormuzov. With such passive operation as this aircraft, the age of the aircraft practically does not matter, notes former Deputy Minister of Civil Aviation of the USSR Oleg Smirnov. According to him, the main task commission - to find out how carefully the plane was monitored.

Piloting error

As one of the versions, the investigation is considering a pilot error. The first two minutes after takeoff is one of the most critical stages of the flight, says pilot Andrei Lamanov, who in 2010 urgently landed a Tu-154 at an abandoned airfield in the city of Izhma, the aircraft is unbalanced, and pilots must constantly react. According to him, if the crew was not technically prepared, such a disaster could occur. At the same time, as Krasnoperov notes, it is not a problem for experienced military pilots to perform emergency landing on the water surface in case of imbalance and send a distress signal.

The crashed plane was flown by pilot first class Roman Volkov, who served in the 223rd flight squad Ministry of Defense, which is based at the Chkalovsky airfield. He was a first-class pilot and had flown more than three thousand hours, the military department said in an official statement. The flight safety service of the Armed Forces said that the aircraft commander had repeatedly flown along a given route. The Tu-154 navigator, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Petukhov, participated in the rescue of the “dancing airliner” in April 2011, Rambler News Service reports. Then a plane of the same model landed at Chkalovsky airport with a faulty control system. For this, he and his colleagues were awarded the Order of Courage.

Pilots call Sochi airport “difficult” - takeoff is complicated by the fact that clouds, icing, and thunderstorms often occur over the sea. According to Roshydromet, on Sunday morning in the area of ​​Adler airport there were normal weather conditions, good visibility and light wind.

In 2006, a few kilometers from coastline in Sochi, due to a piloting error, the A-320 of the Armenian airline Armavia crashed; in 1972, an Il-18 of the Aeroflot company crashed into the Black Sea near Adler; the cause has not yet been established.

Sudden disturbance

The cause of the disaster is also considered to be a bird getting into the engine - there is an ornithological park near the airport. Flight safety specialist Alexander Romanov calls this version unlikely. “When a bird collides, some partial destruction occurs, even to the point where the windshield breaks. Even if the engines fail, the plane does not fall, but goes into a smooth descent,” says the expert, adding that “the birds could not have played this fatal role.”

Terrorist act

The authorities almost immediately rejected the version of the terrorist attack. A source in the security forces told Interfax that a terrorist attack is not considered among the main causes of the disaster and such a version is practically excluded.

“The plane took off from the Chkalovsky airfield, which is a well-guarded military facility. It is not possible to penetrate there in order to plant an explosive device on board. In turn, the airport in Sochi is a dual-use airport and is heavily guarded. The entry of unauthorized persons or the carrying of unauthorized items by any employee is excluded,” the agency’s interlocutor said.

Military journalist Alexander Golts, however, in a conversation with Dozhd, spoke in support of this version. According to him, the authorities cannot allow a terrorist attack to occur at such high level. At the same time, the former head of the anti-terrorist unit of the FSB, Alexander Gusak, claims that “any object can be penetrated.” He noted that “everything depends on the preparation and the possible assistance to the infiltrator.”

According to a Fontanka source, the FSB is working on a version of the terrorist attack. According to the publication’s interlocutor, FSB officers are checking everyone who had access to the plane at the Chkalovsky military airport and at Adler airport. Dozhd's source in the Federal Assembly confirmed this information.

Alexander Shnyakin, a consultant to the Federation Council Commission on Defense and Security, is confident that the cause of the plane crash was a terrorist attack, since the Tu-154 was heading to military base"Khmeimim" in Syria. According to him, terrorist groups will soon take responsibility for what happened.

The first two versions could well be justified weather conditions. If not for one "but". The fact is that the meteorological situation in Sochi and its environs at the time the airliner took off at 5:20 Moscow time was quite acceptable. It is reported that visibility was within 10 kilometers, the east wind was no more than five meters per second and the pressure was 763 millimeters of mercury. Such conditions are unlikely to pose a threat to the aircraft.

There were no particular complaints about the condition of the airliner itself. Despite the fact that at the time of the crash the plane had been in service for 33 years, and its total flight time was 6,689 hours, it was repaired in 2014. Moreover, in September of this year the car underwent scheduled maintenance.

It is worth noting that this age and number of flight hours are quite normal for aircraft such as the Tu-154. For example, the American C-135 Stratolifter, which was put into operation more than 50 years ago, still feels quite good in the sky and is clearly not going to retire. However, the version of the technical problem is the main one on this moment.

A version is also being considered human factor, that is, a pilot error that led to a disaster. However, it is worth noting that the crashed plane was flown by a very experienced crew. First of all, this is first class pilot Roman Volkov, who has more than three thousand hours in the sky behind him. In addition, the navigator of the crashed airliner, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Petukhov, who in 2011 showed miracles of piloting when landing a “dancing plane” of the same model, was considered an undoubted professional in his field.

However, according to experts, the Tu-154 is a rather difficult machine to control and places very strict demands on its pilots. And three thousand hours of flight experience may not be enough for such a “capricious” aircraft. Therefore, the version of the human factor cannot be discarded.

Finally, we cannot rule out the possibility terrorist attack, especially in the current extremely turbulent political situation. Catastrophe Russian airliner in Sinai last year was a consequence of the activity of terrorist groups there, which declared a “holy war” on Russia over its intervention in the fight against radicals in Syria.

At the same time, earlier experts have repeatedly complained that the level of security in the military passenger transportation much lower than in the commercial sector. Eg, pre-flight inspection comes down to an empty formality in the form of checking the passenger list.

In such conditions, it can be assumed that an explosive device could well have been placed on board, for example, during loading. That is why, after the disaster, the special services began to check all those who could have access to the plane at Sochi airport.

However, among other things, a few hours after the crash of the airliner, an interesting video appeared on the Internet, which attracted the attention of many Internet users and social networks. It shows a recording from a CCTV camera at one of the Sochi airports. Somewhere in the fourth or fifth second, you can clearly see how a light suddenly flashes in the dark sky, after which it also quickly goes out. It is assumed that the recording was made this morning, and the flash on the recording is nothing more than the Tu-154 crash.

At the same time, experts argue that such an outbreak could only occur if there was an explosion on the plane or it was attacked by man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems from the ground. However, the authenticity of the film remains to be determined by competent specialists.

There was also a version that the Russian plane could have been hijacked. This version, in particular, was voiced by the Rossiya-1 TV channel, which refers to the point of view of the former shift manager of the center of the unified air traffic organization of Russia Vitaly Andreev. “After take-off and a short flight - two minutes - the plane lost contact and did not transmit a signal to the ground about any problems, which may indicate that there was a problem on board emergency situation: either an external influence on the car, or an encounter with an obstacle that was unlikely to be there,” the expert said.

In any case, specialists have a huge amount of hard and painstaking work ahead of them to find out the true reasons for what happened. At the moment, it is impossible to be more or less confident in any of the presented versions. One way or another, only a thorough investigation with the involvement of competent specialists will help shed the light of truth on what happened.

At the same time, it should be noted that investigators should carefully approach the version of a terrorist attack. The Russian plane crash in Sinai last year comes to mind again. At that time, during the initial investigation, the version of the terrorist attack was not the main one, but it was soon confirmed.

Let us remind you that the crash of the TU-154 plane occurred on Sunday morning over the Black Sea. The liner was heading for Syrian Latakia.

There were reports that there were 92 or 93 people on board the plane. Among them are the Alexandrov Academic Song and Dance Ensemble, journalists from Russian TV channels, famous doctor Elizaveta Glinka and crew members. They all died.

In the case of the Tu-154B-2 plane crash on the Black Sea, a priority version appeared even before the discovery of the flight recorders, Kommersant reports, according to sources close to the investigation. According to it, the airliner, which was carrying artists and journalists en route to Syria, could have fallen due to an error by the pilots, who during takeoff brought the Tu-154 to supercritical angles of attack. Because of this, the car, which lost speed, instead of gaining altitude, sank to the sea, touched the surface of the water with its tail, after which it fell apart and sank. For now, however, this version is based on the testimony of the only eyewitness to the tragedy, who observed the development of the disaster from the sea.

Search and rescue, eastnews. ru

On Monday, the Russian FSB reported that “eyewitnesses to the crash of the airliner have been identified.” According to Kommersant sources close to the investigation, who are now checking the testimony of these witnesses, one of them was an employee of the coast guard of the FSB border troops, who was at the time of the boat accident in the waters of Sochi. The border guard said that early on Sunday morning he became an unwitting eyewitness to the emergency. According to him, the plane that took off from Adler airport, instead of gaining altitude, began to quickly descend towards the surface of the sea, as if it was about to land on it.

The witness noted that even for landing, the position of the aircraft in space seemed strange to him. Allegedly, the Tu-154 was traveling at low speed with its nose unnaturally raised up. An eyewitness, according to the source, even compared the position of the plane at that moment with a motorcycle placed by its driver on its rear wheel. Another moment later, he said, the plane touched the surface of the sea with its tail, which fell off upon impact, crashed into the waves and quickly sank.

According to experts, several factors, one way or another related to the actions of the aircraft crew, could have led to the picture of the incident described by the witness. The Tu-154 took off from the runway at its standard speed, as the FSB reported on Monday, 345 km/h, and began to climb. However, after a few seconds, the car, according to experts, began to lose speed and, accordingly, altitude. This, experts believe, could have happened primarily due to the erroneous actions of the pilots, who tried to lift the car up too vigorously. Thus, presumably, the aircraft was brought to supercritical angles of attack, which led to a loss of speed and lift on the wings and the Tu-154 descending towards the sea surface.


Search and rescue, eastnews. ru

“There is a high probability that the TU-154 was shot down by a missile from Turkey or Georgia. It is not the first time for the Turks to shoot down Russian military aircraft, but the Georgians could have done this on the orders of the State Department.

However, the most likely version is a malfunction of the TU-154 itself, which was many years old, or a mistake by the pilots. Accidents during takeoff and landing are quite common. The plane took off at night, in conditions of limited visibility, which further aggravated the risk of disaster. Let me remind you that the same TU-154 plane carrying the Polish president near Smolensk crashed in 2010 while landing. Perhaps takeoff and landing are the weak points of the TU-154.

But there could also be a terrorist attack. The plane was landing in Sochi to refuel. Perhaps it was refueled with low-quality fuel in Sochi, which is why it was unable to fly for a long time and crashed 7 minutes after takeoff.

The strangest thing, of course, in this story is refueling. Syria is not so far away; the plane from Moscow does not need refueling. They fly to Thailand without any refueling.”

Publishes the opinion of the deputy editor-in-chief of the Aviapanorama magazine, major general, candidate technical sciences Vladimir Popov:

“Several tragic accidents could have led to the plane crash. First: the difficulties of takeoff and landing, the crew is always busy here, a lot of manipulations and technological processes are performed. That is, you need to remove the landing gear and flaps in time, set a certain climb mode, change the operation of the engines. This is the second one. Then check the operation of the power units, then check the mechanics of the power units, etc. At this moment, time is very scarce and there is almost no opportunity to change anything.

Do you represent Adler airfield? These are two stripes at an angle to each other, takeoff and landing are carried out only towards the sea, only from the mountains, there will be at least one wind, at least the other. These are already difficulties. Second. It was night. Third. The crew, when performing the departure technology, takeoff and exit from the airport area, had to be under the strict control of air traffic control authorities. It was reported that it disappeared from radar only 15-20 minutes after it took off. Accordingly, somewhere there was an omission that he was not under control, probably as required. Why didn't he go along the coastline? It was found right in the Khosta area, the first fragments have already been discovered.”

"The option of planting an explosive device in an aircraft seems unlikely. The procedure for inspecting and preparing an aircraft for flight in Russian airports one of the toughest in the world. But it’s hard to believe in a technical malfunction that destroys an airplane so quickly. It’s strange why an attack from the ground is not being considered... The plane crashed before gaining altitude, actually during takeoff. The range of action of MANPADS and the height of destruction is about 5 km.

Despite the fact that such versions are not being considered, there is still an opinion that a very likely way to destroy the aircraft is to use MANPADS on taking off and landing aircraft. A civilian airliner is completely defenseless against such weapons! There is no need for complex methods of penetrating the aircraft's security zone, and there is no risk of being detected when attempting to plant explosive devices in the aircraft. All an attacker needs to do is take out a MANPADS and take a place on the takeoff or landing trajectory.

Is it difficult to get MANPADS? I will not reveal the details, but it is obvious that this is possible in our turbulent times. The cost of MANPADS is also not an insurmountable barrier... Is it difficult to take a position on the take-off trajectory? In most cases, no - it's not difficult. This is also not difficult at sea, all you need is a motor boat, or an attack directly from the coast. It is reported that the wreckage of the plane is located no further than 6-7 km from the coast. Generally speaking, this coincides with the combat use radius of MANPADS. All this says that the version with MANPADS is probable, not impossible.

MANPADS have small weight and dimensions, allowing them to be secretly moved to the attack area. Combined with the short time it takes to get ready to fire (no more than 30 s), the concealed location on the ground and the suddenness of the use of these systems are ensured. In addition, MANPADS are distinguished by ease of training and combat use, as well as high operational reliability in various physical, geographical and climatic conditions."

The FSB named the working versions of the Tu-154 crash: foreign objects entering the engine, low-quality fuel, pilot error and technical malfunction. Experts interviewed by RBC doubt each of them

City residents at the mourning plaque for those killed in the Tu-154 plane crash (Photo: Viktor Korotaev/Kommersant)

Four versions

On Monday, December 26th, federal Service Security Service (FSB) listed the main versions of the crash of a Tu-154 flying to Syrian Latakia. This was the entry of foreign objects into the engine, low-quality fuel, which led to loss of power and failure of the engines, as well as piloting error and technical malfunction of the aircraft, the FSB Public Relations Center (PSC) clarified in a message quoted by TASS.

All these versions are included in the list of the most common causes of plane crashes, Roman Gusarov, editor-in-chief of the Avia.ru publication, told RBC.

The FSB did not specify which of the listed versions is most likely. On Sunday, the authorities prioritized a technical malfunction of the plane, Interfax reported, citing a source in the emergency services. On Monday, Interfax, citing a source familiar with the situation, said that the cause of the Tu-154 crash could have been overload and equipment failure.

What happened to the Tu-154

The airliner, owned by the Ministry of Defense, took off from the Chkalovsky airfield near Moscow at 1:38 Moscow time on December 25. As RBC the airfield duty officer, before departure the plane underwent pre-flight training and “has flown before.” The plane refueled in Adler and headed for Syria.

The plane took off at 5:25, at 5:27 its mark disappeared from the radar, reported official representative of the military department Igor Konashenkov, quoted by the Zvezda TV channel.​.

There were 92 people on board: eight crew members and 84 passengers, including 64 members of the Alexandrov Ensemble. They were flying to the Khmeimim military base to perform there at a New Year's concert.

On board was a member of the Presidential Human Rights Council (HRC) Elizaveta Glinka, as well as the director of the Department of Culture of the Ministry of Defense Anton Gubankov and his assistant Oksana Batrutdinova, journalists from the television companies NTV (Mikhail Luzhetsky, Evgeny Tolstov and Oleg Pestov), ​​“Zvezda” (Pavel Obukhov, Alexander Suranov and Valery Rzhevsky) and Channel One (Vadim Denisov, Alexander Soydov and Dmitry Runkov).

The military investigative department of the RF Investigative Committee for the Sochi garrison opened a criminal case into the crash under Article 351 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (“Violation of flight rules or preparation for them”). On behalf of the Chairman of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, the investigation is being conducted by the central office of the Investigative Committee.

On the morning of December 26, the Ministry of Defense announced that 11 bodies of the dead and 154 fragments of the aircraft had been found. The bodies of ten dead and 86 fragments of bodies were flown to Moscow on Monday morning. As TASS reported with reference to the press service of the Ministry of Defense, two fragments of the control system structure were raised from the bottom, and their serial numbers determined that they belonged to the Tu-154; other elements are located at the bottom at a depth of about 30 m at a distance of 1.6 km from the coast; The scattering radius of the debris was about 500 m.

The department also reported that 100% of the surface of the crash area and a significant part of the bottom (7 out of 15 sectors) had been examined. The search operation involved over 3.5 thousand people, 45 ships and vessels, 12 aircraft, ten helicopters and three unmanned aerial vehicles.

Loss of power can occur when refueling an aircraft at winter period"summer" fuel, said a RBC source in the aircraft industry. At the same time, the expert noted that refueling with “summer” kerosene in the case of the Tu-154 could not lead to the failure of all engines, since it was not too cold. Even if the engines had failed, the source added, the shutdown of other systems would not have happened at lightning speed. “The auxiliary unit is responsible for generating electricity on board the aircraft. power point, also running on kerosene. Unlike engines, it is not picky about fuel. And in a critical situation, it would be possible to transmit a signal about an emergency on board,” noted RBC’s interlocutor.

The version with fuel is also considered untenable by the honorary president of the International Aviation and Space Salon (MAKS), test pilot Magomed Tolboev. He noted that aviation fuel undergoes several checks: upon arrival at the storage facility, during reloading into the tanker and directly during refueling. The latter involves crew members, namely the flight engineer, the expert emphasized.

Wing problem

The last plane crash, the cause of which was officially named as a technical malfunction of the aircraft, was the crash of a civilian An-140 in Iran on August 10, 2014. As TASS reported, the electronic engine control failed.

Experts interviewed by RBC do not believe in the version of a technical malfunction of the Tu-154. RBC's source in the aircraft industry noted that its design has been studied so well over decades of operation that it is almost impossible to miss any faults.

The Tu-154 has a mechanical control system using hydraulic boosters. According to Tolboev, complete failure of this system is possible only if all the liquid leaves it. “This system can fail only if a projectile hits the tank with hydraulic fluid, which is located in the center section. But even with a leak in the tank, you can continue the flight,” the expert said.

However, he caused a disaster due to fatigue failures in the wing mechanization. “When retracting the flaps, the mechanisms on the wings could not work synchronously - one section was completely retracted, but the other was not. The plane began to rotate and collapsed,” Tolboev suggested.

At the same time, none of the experts interviewed by RBC could identify any official version as the main one. Final conclusions can be drawn after examining the wreckage and deciphering the flight recorders.

With the participation of Philip Aleksenko

 

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