Problems and features of the development of civil aviation in modern conditions. Investment support for the development of civil aviation activities in Russia Alexander Alekseevich Kuznetsov Investment aspects of the development of civil aviation in the Russian Federation

financial forecasting bankruptcy

Civil aviation in Russia is the largest sector of the state's economy, the main purpose of which is the transportation of passengers and cargo.

Currently, the enterprises of the aviation complex of our country are in a dire condition, which was fully influenced by the economic crisis that occurred in the country in the 90s. The collapse of the USSR, the beginning of economic restructuring and the transition to market relations, corporatization and privatization, changes in the economic management system - all this adversely affected the position of airline enterprises.

The transition of the Russian economy to market relations has led to extremely unfavorable conditions for domestic producers, including air transport products:

· political instability;

· loss of controllability of the economy (trust in the state is reduced to a minimum);

· relatively high level of inflation and price increases;

· lack of a clear legal framework;

· strict tax policy;

· lack of incentive for production and long-term investment;

· problem of non-payments.

This is not a complete list of problems at the macroeconomic level that Russian airlines face. They are forced to work in conditions of uncertainty and increased risk. Due to the dynamics of market processes, enterprise managers are forced to take prompt measures, often without understanding the economic situation as a whole.

The dominant strategy in air transport in the Russian Federation at the moment has become a survival strategy, carried out in conditions of uncertainty and unclear development prospects. Only a few managers are focused on the strategy of integration into the system of global transport and economic relations, which requires managers to focus on international quality standards and the transition to new forms and methods of commercial activity.

A serious symptom of the Russian crisis civil aviation is the steady moral and physical aging of the aircraft fleet. We are talking about Soviet-made equipment, the service life of which in most cases has long expired. Work on a centralized extension of its operational life to the required extent, with the participation of the state, was not carried out; operational certificates expired and were not renewed. The practice of individual extension of resources for each aircraft separately at the expense of aircraft operators.

In rare cases, technical modernization (including replacement of engines) allows aircraft of this group to make irregular flights to neighboring countries, mainly to those where fairly liberal operational requirements remain. The lifespan of these aircraft, however, is also limited: the operational life cannot be extended indefinitely, the fuselages and cabins, even after conversion, remain obsolete, and technical modernization sooner or later reaches its reasonable limit, beyond which further re-equipment becomes more expensive than the cost of a new aircraft of the same class , not to mention leasing or one-time rent. The direct consequence of this is a decrease in profitability and safety, and ultimately a loss of market.

Airlines will require 563 units of new aircraft (AC) by 2010, taking into account the increasing write-off of the obsolete part of the operating fleet and the planned phased implementation in Russia of ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) restrictions on aircraft navigation accuracy, aircraft noise and harmful emissions during this period. substances during aircraft flights. Most likely, 80-90% of the indicated 563 units will be purchased (leased) imported aircraft.

Such development of the fleet will ensure an increase in the structure of its carrying capacity of the share of modern aircraft of all types to 60%, which is necessary to qualitatively meet the demand for air transportation, develop regional transportation, increase the efficiency of air transport activities and the accessibility of air transport, and significantly reduce the harmful impact of aviation on the environment. It should be noted that the total investment requirement for the development of the new generation aircraft fleet is estimated at 206.5 billion rubles. The question arises: what share of these investments will go to the domestic aviation industry?

Now the greatest hopes are placed on the development and construction of new Russian models. In this regard, it should be noted that the creation of the civil aircraft MS-21 is envisaged; in addition, the program of the regional aircraft SuperJet-100 is actively developing (it should be noted that it is possible to equip the domestic aviation industry with new aircraft such as the Tu-334 and An-204 , ready for serial production).

The Sukhoi SuperJet-100 aircraft belongs to the family of regional aircraft of the RRJ type (Russian Regional Jet - Russian regional aircraft, a project of Sukhoi, Boeing and Ilyushin). The launch of the aircraft into mass production was scheduled for 2008. The delivery of new aircraft to air carriers is planned from 2009-2010.

According to the latest data, the SuperJet-100 is currently undergoing certification tests, both in Russia and in Europe. Having a European certificate will allow the aircraft to be sold for export. The goal set by the Russian-Italian consortium is to occupy 17% of the global short-haul aircraft market. We would like to remind you that the company Civil aircraft Sukhoi" in a consortium with the Italian Alenia Aeronautica (the Italians own 25% plus one share) and is building the SuperJet 100.

Sukhoi plans to receive certificates by the end of the year. Immediately after this, the aircraft will be sent to the first customers. At the moment, Sukhoi, as Vladimir Putin found out as a result of his trip to the Far East, has 98 orders. The first plane will be received by the Armenian Armavia (the Armenians ordered two in total). The catalog price of the SuperJet 100, as explained by Olga Kayukova, director of public relations at Sukhoi, is $28 million, however, in each case, the cost of the order is negotiated separately, and “payment is made in advance.” And the decision about who to deliver the first SuperJet 100 was made based on the order configuration: the simpler it is, the easier it is to manufacture the first aircraft.

Aeroflot, which has ordered 30 aircraft, will also begin to receive aircraft. “Last year we concluded an option with Aeroflot that they would enter into contracts with us for another 15 aircraft,” Sukhoi CEO Mikhail Pogosyan told Vladimir Putin. The Prime Minister was pleased with the activity of Aeroflot.

Also, as Olga Kayukova explained, Sukhoi is negotiating with Rosavia to transfer to it orders from the bankrupt company Dalavia. Another 10 orders belong to Italian companies, some advances have already been received.

At the same time, as Pogosyan clarified, “measures of financial support through Vnesheconombank (VEB) for airlines that are going to purchase the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 are now being discussed.” Moreover, we are talking about support for both Russian and foreign airlines. Poghosyan refused to talk about the methods and volumes of support, but added that such support for airlines buying new aircraft is a worldwide practice.

Later, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov explained that we are talking about providing airlines, primarily Aeroflot, with a loan of $250 million for 13 years for the purchase of SuperJet 100. The funds will be provided by VEB.

Putin promised the enterprise financial assistance from the state in the amount of 6.8 billion rubles. Of these funds, 3.2 billion will be used to increase the authorized capital of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft, and another 3.6 billion from the federal target program “Development of Civil Aviation” will be used to compensate for the rise in cost of aircraft components.

The Russian short-medium-haul aircraft MS-21 should be put into operation in 2012. The aircraft will be produced in three modifications - for 132, 150 and 168 passengers - which differ from each other only in the length of the fuselage. The flight range will be up to five thousand kilometers, and in the LR (Long Range) version - up to 6350 kilometers.

But these are all plans for the future. In the meantime, Sergei Ivanov proposed protecting the Russian market from old foreign aircraft. Customs duties for the import of foreign aircraft over ten years old into Russia should be prohibitive, not permissive, he said.

Meanwhile, it is no secret that there are projects to make up for lost time at the expense of foreigners. Like foreign automobiles, aircraft from well-known companies can now be assembled in Russia. Thus, Oleg Deripaska plans to assemble Canadian Bombardiers in Samara, having immediately purchased a plant, a license, and a brand. According to experts, Deripaska expects to open production of Q300 turboprop aircraft designed to transport passengers over short and medium distances. It is planned that these machines will partially replace the currently flying Soviet-made aircraft (Tu-134, Yak-40), which are often more than 30 years old. For Canadians, the Q300 is almost an obsolete model. Bombardier produces more modern aircraft with similar characteristics. We again get far from the best.

In the meantime, domestic airlines see no other option other than leasing new foreign-made aircraft or purchasing used foreign cars.

Today, the main instrument for implementing state transport policy is the federal target program “Modernization transport system Russia (2002-2010)". This was announced at a meeting of the Government Commission on the Development of Industry, Technology and Transport by the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation Igor Levitin, who presented the draft of the new federal target program “Development of the Russian Transport System (2010-2015)”.

In terms of civil aviation, during the implementation of the current program, the reconstruction of runways at the airports of Sochi, Pulkovo, Gelendzhik, Mineralnye Vody, Krasnoyarsk, Khabarovsk, Samara, Kurgan, and other air harbors was carried out.

However, regional uneven development transport infrastructure limits the creation of a single economic space of the country and hinders the development of regional resources. The most significant differences are between the European part of Russia and the regions of Siberia and the Far East. In 14 regions where aviation is the main or only year-round mode of transport, the airfield network is being reduced due to underfunding.

The current state of affairs in the civil aviation does not allow full use of its competitive advantages to increase the volume of cargo and passenger transportation. Insufficient government capital investments in airfield infrastructure have led to a threefold reduction in the number of airports in the Russian Federation compared to 1992. This caused a catastrophic decrease in intraregional and local air transportation.

Physical and moral wear and tear of about 70% of artificially paved runways built more than 20 years ago, as well as high wear and tear of ground aviation infrastructure, inefficient composition and unsatisfactory condition of the aircraft fleet negatively affect the economic efficiency of transportation and flight safety.

Despite the fact that the volume of Russian civil aviation traffic in recent years are growing at a rate more than twice the world average, its development still does not correspond either to the scale of the country’s territory or to the population’s needs for air transportation.

Growth in passenger air travel is limited by high costs aviation services, which is primarily due to the use of outdated aircraft, whose fuel consumption is twice as high as that of modern Russian and foreign analogues, and the underdevelopment of the airfield infrastructure.

Another problem that we have not yet mentioned is the shortage of qualified personnel that Russian aviation is experiencing. There are many educational institutions in Russia that train personnel for civil aviation. Meanwhile, the problem of training flight and technical personnel for the industry today is more relevant than ever. “In Russia, in the near future there may be a shortage of personnel for pilots,” warned Transport Minister Igor Levitin at one of his meetings with the heads of Russian civil aviation educational institutions. - With the creation of an aircraft manufacturing corporation that will be able to supply equipment for training as much as needed, we may fall behind in the training of pilots from the process of releasing new aircraft, and there will be no one to fly them. The level of pilot training is directly related to flight safety in civil aviation, and this is our area of responsibility,” Levitin said. - So participation in financing is only a right, not an obligation of airlines. But they must remember that this is a “two-way street”: the airlines will not be interested, and the pilots we trained will go to other countries, to their own competitors.”

The hint addressed to air carriers has a very real basis: the outdated norm of 60-hour flight training for one pilot cost the state 2 million rubles, the current 150-hour standard costs 4.5. Fulfillment of the new ICAO recommendation - to spend 240 hours on flight training for a pilot - will also require appropriate funding.

Levitin also called on the heads of civil aviation educational institutions to work more actively with air carriers in terms of social partnership. But, probably, the state must also find a way to balance the costs of flight schools: navigation costs alone cost the educational institution tens of millions of rubles a year.

The annual growth in air passenger traffic in the country in recent years has been more than 10%, and airlines are already forced to accept previously released pilots, which is why flight safety suffers. The way out of the situation is to create universal pilot training and retraining centers in the country. One of the places for such a center is Ulyanovsk, the minister believes. The base laid here back in Soviet times is quite suitable: there is both an aircraft manufacturer and the oldest Flight school with experienced teaching staff.

According to the data announced at the meeting, in recent years more than half of all Russian air transportation has been carried out on foreign Boeing and Airbus aircraft. “The numbers will grow, so we need, firstly, to invite foreign manufacturers to create pilot retraining centers in Russia, and secondly, to organize aircraft maintenance here,” the minister concluded.

These and other problems of the industry predetermined the need to develop a new edition of the federal target program with a change in its name and implementation deadlines.

As a result of the implementation of the Civil Aviation subprogram, the following indicators are expected to be achieved in the coming years:

Aviation mobility of the population will increase by 62%;

Passenger turnover on international airlines will increase by 41%;

The number of transfer air passengers on connecting international flights and international domestic flights will increase to 3.3 million per year;

After reconstruction, 112 runways will be put into operation;

The airlines will purchase 659 modern aircraft.

In 2010-2015, the formation of a national backbone network of air harbors, the development of hub transportation technologies and the priority development of domestic Russian regional and local airports will take place, which will increase the number of passengers transported on local airlines by 70%. The modernized fleet of aircraft and ground infrastructure will meet a higher level of ICAO requirements.

In general, it should be noted that the state policy regarding the development of civil aviation in conditions of limited budget funds should be based on the principle of a motivated reduction in the number of airport complexes and development through the concentration of resources of key, system-forming airports.

It should be taken into account that at present the civil aircraft market has not been formed in the country. There are no stable conditions for the relationship between airlines, industry, financial institutions and the state at the stages of production, sales, service and operation of new generation aircraft.

In addition, significant attention should be paid to the problems of developing the air transportation market and aviation services to meet the needs of the population and the country's economy.

The task of consolidation and consolidation of participants in the domestic aviation market has already been recognized by the country's leadership. The catalysts for this rethinking of public policy were various factors. These include concerns about improving flight safety (against the backdrop of an increasing number of aircraft accidents and plane crashes), and the unsatisfied demand of the political and business elite for modern and efficient aircraft for flights within the country and abroad. Of particular note in this regard is the perceived need to create a sufficient number of strong airlines that could act as customers and consumers of significant volumes of products from the domestic aviation industry and, thus, save the latter from complete and final collapse.

In a country with a population of 145 million, most of whom, for socio-economic and cultural reasons, are not characterized by any significant mobility, today there are about 200 officially registered airlines. It is estimated that almost 90 percent of Russian air carriers are ghost companies, or more accurately, “dead souls.” These are registered business entities that have registered ownership of several aircraft, and sometimes even one aircraft. A relatively small portion of aircraft owned by “phantom” companies make sporadic flights from time to time, mainly on local routes. There is no need to talk about any serious significance of this episodic activity from the point of view of the country’s economy or the social mobility of its population. At the same time, the operation of dequalified (due to lack of flight practice) personnel of this aircraft, which sits idle most of the time without proper service, is associated with an increased risk.

The only exceptions are aircraft owned (directly or through subsidiary airlines) by large resource concerns (Gazprom, Sibneft, LUKoil, etc.), which more or less regularly transport executives (including abroad) , as well as workers to the place of main production activity or to places of recreation. Basically, this is Soviet-made equipment with an extended operational life and a valid certificate of fitness that allows flights within the country.

Thus, the concept of “Russian aviation,” the fate of which directly depends on the immediate implementation of comprehensive reforms in the industry, in fact only covers aircraft owned or operated by the 20-25 leading national airlines. At the same time, the carriers included in this group are also characterized by extreme heterogeneity both in terms of their financial and economic capabilities, and in terms of the market niche for domestic and international passenger and cargo transportation that they occupy or expect to occupy.

Companies included in the top five national rankings based on a set of indicators are usually characterized by a multi-vector nature of their production activities, that is, they operate in more than one market segment - domestic and international, passenger and cargo transportation, scheduled and charter flights.

It is quite obvious that in modern conditions only medium and large (by world standards) carriers can be economically viable. Only they will have sufficient capabilities to purchase or lease modern and efficient equipment, maintain (including training and periodic retraining) qualified personnel, and introduce the latest technologies.

Marketing, electronic booking and sale of tickets (in the passenger market), multimodal logistics support for cargo transportation, including the maintenance of modern warehouses (in the cargo transportation market), provision of comprehensive door-to-door services - all these mandatory attributes of a promising participant in the air transportation market of the 21st century can only be achieved sufficiently large companies.

The leadership of the Russian Ministry of Transport has repeatedly publicly stated the advisability of a consistent consolidation of Russian airlines, so that in the near future there will be no more than 4-5 of them. According to some expert estimates, in Russian conditions this quantitative indicator is not only unattainable, but also not entirely justified economically.

Taking into account the size of the country's territory, the need to solve specific problems related to ensuring a minimum level of social mobility for the population living in remote and inaccessible areas, and maintaining the territorial integrity of the state, according to these experts, the optimal number of Russian airlines would be 5-10. This implies that the national carrier, as well as the 2-4 largest airlines, would act as the main carriers within the country and abroad. The rest (including helicopter companies) would carry out local transportation and play the role of “feeders”, transporting passengers and cargo to large transshipment hubs - “hubs”, from where they would continue on flights of major airlines.

If Russia can implement the overdue reforms and bring its civil aviation out of the systemic crisis, then a gradual transition to new forms of international legal regulation of its relations with the outside world in the field of air transport will become logical and justified.

The national carrier requires special attention, powerful and, most importantly, effective government support and careful attitude. Regardless of its share in its capital, the state must significantly reduce the degree of its direct participation in the day-to-day activities of Aeroflot OJSC and stop obstructing its normal development, be it the construction of its own base airport or the acquisition of new competitive aircraft.

The state must also ensure that the promotion of Russian airlines to foreign markets occurs not through the redistribution of Aeroflot's gains (commercial rights for international transportation, slots, etc.), but through the development of new niches and segments.

For their part, the management of Aeroflot and other large companies must take steps to increase the efficiency of their companies, optimize staffing, and eliminate unprofitable or non-core activities. Taking into account the ongoing process of aging of flight personnel, airlines need, with the assistance of the state, to take urgent measures to attract young pilots and navigators to their professional training on new generation aircraft.

It is necessary to clearly understand that without the political and economic support of air carriers - the main promising consumers - the revival of the domestic aviation industry is simply impossible. Moreover, this is the only way to preserve the remaining foreign markets for civilian products of Russian aircraft and helicopter manufacturing and conquer new ones.

Chapter 1. System of state regulation of civil 10 j aviation activities in Russian Federation.

1.1. Evolution of methodological approaches to ensuring 10 development of civil aviation activities

1.2. Assessment of the state and trends of civil aviation 33 activities in Russia

1.3. Investment factors for the development of civil 48 aviation activities

Chapter 2. Analysis of the investment capacity of the Russian market 63 of civil aviation activities

2.1. Civil aviation market

2.2. Market of air transportation and air services in Russia

Chapter 3. The role of leasing in the development of civil aviation 115 activities in Russia

3.2. Efficiency of financial leasing of aviation equipment 128 Conclusions and suggestions 146 References

Recommended list of dissertations

Leasing of aviation equipment as a tool for increasing the competitiveness of air transport in the Russian Federation 2006, Candidate of Economic Sciences Chubarov, Nikolai Nikolaevich
Leasing as a factor in the development of entrepreneurship: the example of an airline 2009, Candidate of Economic Sciences Zosimov, Dionis Ruslanovich
Criteria for the development of production and use of aviation equipment in the conditions of the market economic system of Russia 2004, Candidate of Economic Sciences Tishenin, Andrey Alekseevich
Experience and problems of financial leasing: the example of Aeroflot 2007, Candidate of Economic Sciences Kharlashkina, Maria Ruslanovna
Ways of using international leasing by Russian enterprises when purchasing civil aircraft 2000, Candidate of Economic Sciences Pavlov, Igor Gennadievich

Introduction of the dissertation (part of the abstract) on the topic “Investment support for the development of civil aviation activities in Russia”

The need to find scientifically based effective mechanisms for investment support and the development of high-tech sectors of the Russian economy in market economic conditions determines the relevance of the topic of this study. By the beginning of the third millennium, Russia had lost a significant part of the enormous potential that was created during the period of planned development. If the logic of the position of a superpower country required the active development of industries that could ensure the strategic security of the state with their products, then the period of market reforms and the cessation of cold war development issues at the level of industries and complexes were relegated to the background. The state has withdrawn itself from the problem industrial development, but only emerging private sector still underdeveloped.

In many sectors, the situation over the 15 years of reforms has not recovered to a level comparable to the pre-reform one. A clear example is civil aviation. The production of new aircraft in Russia has practically ceased, having fallen to zero from a level of one and a half thousand aircraft per year. Air transport accounts for about a third of pre-reform levels and is provided by a fleet of morally and physically obsolete aircraft. According to experts, Russia is currently unable to mass-produce aircraft for technological reasons. This negatively affects the quality of those individual machines that are still manufactured at domestic enterprises. The industry requires radical restructuring and revitalization or will be effectively eliminated in the coming years.

Huge intellectual capital, established foundations of market institutions, rich natural resources, basic elements of production and communication infrastructure, accumulated financial savings in the country,

All these factors create the prerequisites for modernizing the industry at a qualitatively new technical and technological level. Main task is to activate this process.

In accordance with the Program of the Government of the Russian Federation "Main directions of socio-economic policy of the Government of the Russian Federation for the long term", the country is offered a development scenario based on the release of private initiative and strengthening the role of the state in ensuring favorable economic conditions, including financial and social stability. The emphasis is on the active integration of Russia into the world economy while simultaneously protecting Russian interests and ensuring the strategic security of the country.

The goals of the Program are achievable only as a result of modernizing the economy, increasing its innovative component, and improving equipment and technologies. Investments of an innovative nature, their breakthrough potential in strategically important areas.

But in the development of civil aviation, not only technological and innovative characteristics are highly significant. Civil aviation in Russia plays a special role, being, on the one hand, a typical sub-industry that provides transport services to the population and other clients, and on the other hand, it performs the most important function of the country’s integrator, providing transport links between the Center and remote regions, where ground transport communications or absent or extremely poorly developed. It should be noted that such regions include more than 60 percent of the country’s territory. Civil aviation is one of the key elements in ensuring the strategic security of the country from the standpoint of infrastructural support for its development.

The industry is in a difficult state and requires significant investment resources for its development. In this regard, the search for effective mechanisms for attracting investment resources in the development of the aviation industry is of great importance.

B. Behrens, G. Birman, K. Van Horn, P. Vilensky, V. Gazman, L. Gitman, F. Damanpour, M. Jonk, R. Kanter, B. N. Kuzyk, V. I. Kushlin, L .Kruschwitz,

A.Ya.Livshits, D.S.Lvov, A.M.Margolin, A.G.Porshnev, D.Rubinfeld,

S. Smolyak, B. Twiss, N. Holt, S. Schmidt, D. Schumpeter, A. N. Folomiev.

This list can be significantly expanded. A number of domestic and foreign researchers reveal the specifics of investment support in aviation industry, leasing of aviation equipment, features of the industry’s economy and its interactions, including in the conditions of Russia and the CIS. Among them:

V.S. Bulanov, G. Boulard, E. Matveev, O. Starodomsky, J. Ott, E. Phillips, A. N. Fetisov and others. However, the study of this issue cannot be called exhaustive. Investment support for the development of high-tech industries and the corresponding tools for their regulation are being transformed and developed together with the economies of countries under the influence of scientific and technological progress, information technology, and the internationalization of markets. This process requires constant scientific analysis, developing theoretical explanations for new processes, searching for fresh solutions using modern achievements of the world economy, theory and practice of industry development.

The main goal of the study is to substantiate the mechanisms of investment and organizational support for the development of civil aviation activities in Russia, taking into account both global experience and Russian specifics. To achieve this, the following tasks were solved:

Analysis of the state of development of the aviation industry in Russia, key influencing factors and trends;

Analysis of global experience in investment support for the aviation industry and assessment of the possibilities of its adaptation to Russian conditions;

Assessing current trends in the development of the real sector of the Russian economy to take them into account when choosing optimal investment technologies and methods of state regulation of investment processes;

Identification of industry characteristics that influence the choice of investment support methods for the aviation industry;

Development of an investment mechanism for organizing financing of the aviation industry;

Justification of methods of state support for modern investment technologies.

The object of the study is civil aviation activity in Russia as a systemic entity, considered in conjunction with the infrastructure of its functioning.

The subject of the study is organizational and economic relations that arise in the process of investment support for the development of civil aviation activities in Russia.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are: a systematic approach, which allows us to consider investment activity in dialectical unity with the processes of organizational formation of the corresponding markets; theoretical research by Russian and foreign scientists on issues of investment activity and state regulation of the development of economic sectors, the functioning and development of financial markets, leasing, problems of efficiency and risks of investment activity, institutional building at the industry level; materials of empirical research on the development of industries and investment activities. During the research, methods such as statistical comparisons, retrospective, diachtronic and cross-factor analysis, grouping, approximation and multifactorial forecasting were used.

The new scientific findings of the study are as follows:

The need for a fundamental change in the currently used economic mechanisms of state regulation of civil aviation activities in Russia is substantiated. It is shown that the need for such changes is predetermined by the inadequacy of the economic content of existing problems in the development of civil aviation - the organizational and legal means of solution used to overcome them. In particular, the industry's key problems of insufficient investment support are expected to be solved, within the framework of the existing system of regulation of civil aviation activities, mainly by certification and licensing of the activities of potential investment recipients. The inadequacy of the means of regulation to the essential characteristics of the object of regulation is one of the main reasons for the crisis state of the object of study.

New methodological approaches to the selection of regulation parameters when forecasting the development of civil aviation are proposed. It is assumed that rationalization of the choice of regulation parameters will improve the quality of forecasts obtained for the purposes of government regulation, based on the industry development model currently used in Russia.

The need to make adjustments to the forecast model for the development of civil aviation currently used for the purposes of state regulation is substantiated, the results of which are reflected in documents of a strategic nature. It has been shown that the currently used state level The methodology for assessing the country's need for aircraft production volumes and investment support for the industry gives significantly underestimated values. An imbalance in estimates of the level of future demand for aviation technology can significantly affect the parameters of the system of state regulation of the development of the industry and restrain its growth.

Measures are proposed to optimize the processes of restructuring and state regulation of the development of the industry, based on the identified quantitative and qualitative parameters of the imbalance in the development of the industry under study, an analysis of the state and trends of the aviation industry, in connection with the air transportation system in Russia.

An analysis of the conditions and features of the functioning of the industry made it possible to identify a number of boundary conditions for its investment support and substantiate the fundamental advantages of leasing support for investments in the aviation industry compared to a loan, which makes it possible to optimize government measures to stimulate the development of the industry.

Based on an analysis of the conditions for the implementation of various leasing projects for aircraft equipment and the dependencies between their parameters, a possible range of conditions for the implementation of projects has been determined in which financial leasing of aircraft equipment will be beneficial to both the lessor and the lessee (area of compromise). A method for calculating the compromise area based on the identified dependencies is proposed.

A number of measures have been proposed to complement the existing system of state investment policy measures aimed at the speedy restoration of the Russian aviation industry and its effective development in modern conditions. The proposals relate mainly to improving the tools for qualitative and quantitative assessments of the current and future development of the subject of regulation, which allows optimizing the parameters of government policy.

The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that its results are translated into specific recommendations for regulating investment processes, infrastructural support and implementation of organizational and structural decisions in the aviation industry, aimed at enhancing development and optimizing investment activity in the industry.

Theoretical conclusions and practical recommendations can be used by subjects of investment activity to improve its efficiency, and taken into account when forming the development strategy of business entities and the aviation industry as a whole. Recommendations on state regulation of the investment sphere MOiyr are used by executive and legislative authorities when developing new and making adjustments to existing federal programs, their legal support, as well as when forming state economic and industrial policy. The main provisions of the study may be of interest to researchers, teachers and practitioners, and can be used for the development of relevant special courses on investment activities.

The structure of the work reflects the general logic of the study. The work consists of an introduction, three chapters (including seven paragraphs), conclusions and proposals, a list of references, illustrated with the necessary analytical tables, drawings and diagrams.

Similar dissertations majoring in “Economics and management of the national economy: theory of management of economic systems; macroeconomics; economics, organization and management of enterprises, industries, complexes; innovation management; regional economics; logistics; labor economics", 08.00.05 code VAK

Leasing as an investment policy tool in the aviation production and operational complex 2008, Candidate of Economic Sciences Ostrovsky, Alexey Konstantinovich
Technology for assessing the economic feasibility of civil aviation fleet renewal projects based on leasing 2002, Candidate of Economic Sciences Grumondz, Andrey Valerievich
The leasing mechanism as a tool for managing investments in capital goods: The example of civil aviation 2004, Candidate of Economic Sciences Zargano, Mikhail Gennadievich
Organizational and economic mechanisms for managing leasing activities in Russian civil aviation 2004, Candidate of Economic Sciences Samokhin, Alexey Viktorovich
Improving the mechanism for managing leasing relations in air transport 2005, Candidate of Economic Sciences Cherkashin, Dmitry Sergeevich

Conclusion of the dissertation on the topic “Economics and management of the national economy: theory of management of economic systems; macroeconomics; economics, organization and management of enterprises, industries, complexes; innovation management; regional economics; logistics; labor economics", Kuznetsov, Alexander Alekseevich

Conclusions and suggestions

The conducted research allows us to formulate a number of well-founded conclusions and recommendations regarding aspects of the industry’s functioning that are critical for the development of aviation activities in Russia.

In our opinion, there is some contradiction between those fixed in the conceptual government documents the reasons for the crisis in the industry, and the solutions to these key problems proposed further in the Federal Targeted Program. So the main problems include the lack of funds to update the aircraft fleet and the lack of investment resources to improve equipment. The key causes of the problems directly or indirectly come down to the financial aspect of ensuring the development of the industry. In turn, in the Federal Target Program "Modernization of the Transport System of Russia" and its subprogram "Civil Aviation" (see Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated October 15, 2001 No. 728). it is indicated that "... the main principles of ensuring the regulatory role of the state in the field of airline activities is the development of a certification and licensing system and, on this basis, streamlining the number of operators in the air transport market, assistance in the creation of airline alliances." In this case, the means of solution are inadequate to the problems that require solutions. This calls into question the feasibility of implementing the specified federal target program. The work substantiates the need for a fundamental change in the economic mechanisms of state regulation of civil aviation activities that have developed to date in Russia.

It is shown that the inadequacy of the means of regulation to the essential characteristics of the sphere of regulation is one of the main reasons for the crisis state of the object of study. Such a key problem in the development of civil aviation activities as insufficient resource (investment) support should be solved through adequate tools, and not through regulatory actions in the institutional sphere (certification and licensing of the activities of potential investment recipients), which do not have a significant impact on resource factors.

An in-depth analysis of the conceptual, forecasting and regulatory documents existing in the country related to the development of aviation activities made it possible to identify a number of contradictions in the state’s tasks reflected there, in the available and recommended tools for solving problems, and in the proposed approaches.

The paper proposes new methodological approaches to the selection of regulation parameters when forecasting the development of civil aviation. When assessing the need for investment resources for the expanded reproduction of civil aviation activities in the country, it is proposed to focus on assessing the total level of financial costs of the country's airlines in relation to the forecast for the volume of passenger and cargo transportation, interconnected with the forecast for the growth of the country's GDP. The author shows that a well-founded choice of regulation parameters will improve the quality of all information used by government regulatory bodies in management practice.

The need to make adjustments to the predictive model of civil aviation development currently used for the purposes of state regulation is substantiated.

It is shown that the methodology used for assessing the country's need for aircraft production volumes and investment support for the industry gives significantly underestimated values. An imbalance in estimates of the level of future demand for aviation technology can significantly affect the parameters of the system of state regulation of the development of the industry and restrain its growth.

Based on an analysis of the conditions and features of the functioning of a complex of industries related to civil aviation activities, a number of boundary conditions for its investment support have been identified (in terms of volumes, terms of provision and cost of investment resources) and the fundamental advantages of leasing security for investments in the aviation industry compared to credit security have been substantiated. The validity of boundary conditions and investment support tools make it possible to optimize government measures to stimulate the development of the industry.

The rather narrow range of conditions for combining the economic interests of the lessor and the lessee of aviation equipment imposes a number of serious restrictions on the possibilities and directions of state regulation in this area. In particular, the study reveals an almost rigid alternative: either the state will create and launch an investment mechanism from its own resources (based on its own special investment institution or by endowing any existing institutions with the necessary resources), which will provide more competitive conditions for financing the creation of new aviation equipment, or domestic The aviation industry will become the property of foreign investors. Let us note that such an institution could also be the institution of state procurement for civil aviation aircraft.

Based on an analysis of the conditions for the implementation of various leasing projects for aviation equipment and the dependencies between their parameters, such a possible range of conditions for the implementation of projects has been determined (according to the cost of the purchased equipment and the financial efficiency of its operation, the timing and volume of payments), in which financial leasing of aircraft equipment will be profitable as both the lessor and the lessee (area of compromise).

The operating conditions for the domestic aviation industry set by the current regulatory framework in Russia cannot ensure its sustainable development. The possibility of adopting certain amendments, it seems, cannot fundamentally improve the situation without solving a fundamental issue: the formation of a national system of investment support for expensive projects for the development and production of high-tech, complex products, both civil and military.

Unfortunately, a mechanism for compensating the interest rate on loans, which is quite simple to organize, for example, for the purchase of aircraft, does not solve the problems of the buyer and the lender specific to the area under consideration. It is practically impossible to do without the use of financial leasing. Moreover, as the study showed, leasing itself becomes acceptable only in a fairly narrow range of conditions for its implementation, which requires certain measures of government support to ensure the investment process.

It can be noted here that the mechanism of investment support for development based on leasing obtained for the aviation industry can also be adapted for water and railway transport, production of other particularly complex and expensive equipment (industrial tractors, excavators, dredges, dredgers, drilling platforms, etc.).

The global air transportation market is beginning to have a huge impact on the prospects for the development of the domestic aviation industry. First of all, we are talking about the crisis of air transportation in the world in 2001-2003. A consequence of the decline in the industry was the appearance on the market of a large number of high-quality “second hand” aircraft aged 3-15 years, according to low prices. Such aircraft pose serious competition to domestic aircraft not only in the international transportation market sector, where they have advantages in meeting foreign requirements. Imported “second hand” aircraft can seriously compete with domestic aircraft and domestic flights, now in terms of price parameters, operating costs (especially fuel) and terms of purchase (leasing).

It can be noted that there is a need to make adjustments to strategic decisions implemented at the state level, in particular, on the strategy for the development of civil aviation, which is reflected in the Federal Target Program "Modernization of the Russian Transport System". The analysis showed that:

Actual GDP growth rates in 2000-2002 ahead of those predicted at the macroeconomic level.

The forecast significantly (by 20-50%) underestimates the existing world relationship between economic growth and air traffic volumes, which leads to an underestimation of Russia's need for new aircraft. the forecast does not take into account the conditions and consequences of the global air transportation crisis; the forecast is unreasonably accepted as a significant corrective parameter for the forecast values - assessment of the degree of competitiveness of air traffic depending on the length of the transportation route

The above indicates the inadequacy of the mentioned model.

A likely consequence of errors in the initial premises and assessment criteria of the model used to forecast the development of the industry may be: a slight underestimation of the total demand for both passenger and cargo aircraft in Russia for the period until 2015 (estimated by 15-20%)

There is some underestimation of the need to replace obsolete models of domestic aircraft but new ones that meet international requirements, which is associated with a sharp increase in competition from the excess number of foreign aircraft on the market (estimated, a 20-25% increase in the dynamics of retirement of obsolete aircraft and replacement with new ones is required).

It should also be noted that although the long-term nature of the aviation market forecasts allows us to consider it natural that they differ somewhat from the current dynamics of traffic volumes, nevertheless, the fundamental difference between the key influencing factors taken into account in the model from the current situation requires, in our opinion, changes to both the forecast model and and to the Federal Target Program for the Development of Civil Aviation in Russia.

It can be assumed that a more adequate and justified forecast model could be one that would implement a macrodynamic approach to modeling the development of the aircraft fleet, based on coordinating the dynamics of the carrying capacity of a gradually aging operating fleet with the traffic volumes calculated for the period up to 2015.

Due to the high cost of aircraft, the resource intensity of their production and the extensive cooperation of manufacturers, a more accurate general and structural assessment of the need for new aircraft is required. Such a need should be assessed through the projected development of the deficit in the carrying capacity of the current fleet in relation to the expected demand for transportation, which determines the required composition of the future fleet.

To assess the rational structure of a promising aircraft fleet in terms of passenger capacity, it is necessary to assess the distribution of demand according to the intensity of passenger traffic, which depends not only on the expected volume of traffic, but also on the frequency of aircraft movement on the line. The above requires, in particular, that in the methodology for predicting the rational composition of the aircraft fleet, restrictions on the competitive frequency of aircraft on the airline and appropriate adjustments taking into account the dynamics of development of the environment external to the industry, affecting the passenger flow (cargo flow) estimated for transportation. It is obvious that these parameters are influenced by both the level of development of modes of transport competing with aviation and the level of competition between airlines, as well as the price level of competitive transport, its technical and infrastructural characteristics, the level of well-being of the population, the general economic situation, the level of interregional integration, and a number of other factors.

It is possible that in the long-term modeling of industry development it will be necessary to use a whole set of predictive models, differentiated, for example, for various conditions of traffic intensity, flight load, aircraft passenger capacity class, airline range, certain conditions of the competitive environment, etc.

List of references for dissertation research Candidate of Economic Sciences Kuznetsov, Alexander Alekseevich, 2005

1. Air Code of the Russian Federation;

2. The concept of state transport policy of the Russian Federation, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of September 8, 1997 No. 1143;

3. The concept of restructuring the Russian aviation industrial complex, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of March 6, 1998 No. 294;

4. Federal target program "Development of civil aviation equipment in Russia for 2002-2010 and for the period until 2015." (Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated October 15, 2001 No. 728).

8. Decision of the meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on the issue of defining a general strategy and urgent measures for the preservation and development of aviation and aircraft manufacturing in the Russian Federation dated February 4, 2000;

9. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of April 11, 2000 No. 326 “On licensing of certain types of activities.”

10. Management concept state property and privatization in the Russian Federation, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of September 9, 1999 No. 1024;

11. On the organization of the development of the draft federal target program "Modernization of the transport system of Russia" (Order of the Ministry of Transport of Russia dated January 5, 2001 No. 5).

12. Law of the Russian Federation of March 22, 1991 “On competition and restriction of monopolistic activities in commodity markets”;

13. On measures of State support for the renewal of the fleet of sea, river, aircraft and their construction (Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 04/09/01 No. 278).

14. Abramov S.I. Investment. M.: Center for Economics and Marketing, 2000.

15. Avdasheva S.B., Rozanova N.M. Theory of organization of industrial markets. M.: IChP "Magister", 1998.

16. Alekperov V.Yu. It's time to liquidate the factories. Expert, 1999, No. 1-2.

17. Ansoff I. Strategic management. M.: Economics, 1989.

18. Balabanov I.T. Risk management. -M.: Finance and Statistics, 1996.

19. Bard B.C. Financial and investment complex. M., 1998.

20. Behrens V., Havranek P. Guide to assessing the effectiveness of investments. M.: Infra-M, 1995.

21. Business plan for an investment project. Ed. Popova V.M. M.: Finance and Statistics, 1997.

22. BICKY. Foreign Bulletin commercial information. Issues for 2000-2003.

23. Birman G., Schmidt S. Economic analysis of investment projects. M.: Banks and exchanges, "UNITY", 1997.

24. Vilensky P.L., Livshits V.N., Orlova E.R., Smolyak S.A. Evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects. M.: Delo, 1998.

25. Vitryansky V.V. Lease agreement and its types. M.: Status, 1999. -299 p.

26. Vorobyov Yu., Karavaeva I., Skrobov A. Collateral lending: foreign experience and Russian reality // Questions of Economics. 1995.- No. 11.

27. Gazman V.D. Leasing: theory, practice, comments. M.: Legal Culture Foundation, 1997.

28. Garner D., Owen R., Conway R. Ernst and Young manuals. Raising capital / Transl. from English M.: "John Wiley and Sons", 1995. - pp. 77-96.

29. Gitman L.J., Jonk M.D. Fundamentals of investing. Per. from English M., 1999. 1008 p.

30. State regulation of a market economy. Textbook for universities. Ed. Kushlina V.I. 2nd ed. - M.: RAGS, 2002.

31. Drucker Peter F. Management challenges in the 21st century. M.: Publishing house. house. "William", 2000.

32. Life tests forecasts // Air transport review. No. 45, 2003.

33. Idrisov A.B. and others. Strategic planning and analysis of investment efficiency. M.: Filin, 1997.

34. Idrisov A.B., Kartyshev S.V., Postnikov A.V. Strategic planning and analysis of investment efficiency. M.: Filin, 1997, p.59.

35. Investment activity in the Russian Federation: conditions, factors, trends. M.: Goskomstat of the Russian Federation, OIPD GMC GKS RF, 2000.

36. Investment design. Ed. Shumilina S.I. M.: JSC "Finstatinform", 1995.

37. Investment projects: principles of analysis. // Investments in Russia, 1994, No. 1-2.

38. Investment business. // General ed. Yakovets Yu.V. M.: Publishing house RAGS, 2002.

41. How they take risks, how they avoid risks. // Expert, 1996, No. 37.

42. Kovalev V.V. Financial analysis: Capital management. Choice of investments. Reporting analysis. 2E ed. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 1997.

43. Kovalev V.V. Lease: law, accounting, analysis, taxation. M., 2000. 272 p.

44. Comprehensive program for stimulating domestic and foreign investment in the economy of the Russian Federation. // Kommersant, 1995, No. 40.

45. Controlling as a tool for enterprise management / E.A. Anankina, S.V. Danilochkin and others; Ed. N.G. Danilochkina. M.: Audit, UNITY, 1998.

46. Kruschwitz Lutz. Financing and investment. Neoclassical foundations of finance theory / Transl. with him. under general editorship V.V. Kovalev and Z.A. Sabov St. Petersburg: Peter Publishing House, 2000. - 400 p.

47. Kuzovkin A.I. Energy saving potential // Economist. 2000. No. 5.

48. Kushlin V.I. Economic strategy of the state at the present stage of reforms. In the book: State regulation of the economy. M.: RAGS, 1998,

49. Lensky E.V., Tsvetkov B.A. Transnational financial and industrial groups and interstate economic integration: reality and prospects.-M.: AFPI Ezhen. "Economics and Life", 1998.

50. Lipsits I.V., Kossov V.V. Investment project. -M.: BEK, 1996

51. Lukinov V.A. Problems of stabilization and development of the investment and construction sector. M.: SIMS LLP, 1998;

52. Mann R., Mayer E. Controlling for beginners. / Per. with him. M.: "Finance and Statistics", 1992. - 208 p.

53. Margolin A.M. Financial support and evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects. M.: 1997.

54. Margolin A.M., Bystryakov A.Ya. Economic assessment of investments. Textbook for universities. M.: EKMOS, 2001.

55. Margolin A.M., Semenov S.A. Investment analysis. M.: Publishing house RAGS, 1999. -.135 p.

56. Methodical recommendations on assessing the effectiveness of investment projects (second edition). The official publication of the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the State Committee for Construction, Architecture and Housing Policy. M., 2000. 423 p.

59. The world of project management. Fundamentals, methods, organization, application. / Ed. X. Reschke, X. Schelle. M:, "Alane" - 1994. -304 p.

60. Movsesyan A.G. Integration of banking and industrial capital: modern world trends and development problems in Russia.-M.: Finance and Statistics, 1997;

61. On the threshold of the 21st century. World Development Report 1999/2000. M.: The whole world. World Bank. 2000.

62. Nikiforova V.D. Formation of a mechanism for long-term investment in the national economy. St. Petersburg, 1997.

63. Novozhilov V.V. Problems of measuring costs and results in optimal planning. M.: Economics, 1967.

64. Panferov G.A. Are methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of investment projects perfect? Russian Economic Journal, 1997, No. 2.

67. Porter M. International competition: Transl. from English / Ed. and with a foreword by V.D. Shchetinina. -M.: International. relations, 1993. -896p.

68. Attracting investments in Russia. Markovsky V., Pavlov G., Melnikov A., Ivanov A. - St. Petersburg: BSK, 1996,

69. Attracting investments in Russia. Markovsky V., Pavlov G., Melnikov A., Ivanov A. - St. Petersburg: BSK, 1996,

70. Raising capital. Benefits Ernst & Young. / Per. from English M.: "John Wiley and Sons", 1995.

71. Prilutsky L. Leasing. Legal basis of leasing activities in the Russian Federation. M.: Os-89, 1996.

72. The problem of investment: the director’s view. // Expert, 1997, No. 15.

73. Rekitar A.Ya. Problems of increasing investment activity in the Russian economy. Construction Economics, 1997, No. 8;

74. Smirnov A.B. Leasing operations. -M.: JSC "Consultbanker", 1995.

75. Drawing up a business plan. Manuals Ernst and Young. M.: John Wiley and Sons, 1995.

76. Strategy and tactics of anti-crisis management of the company / Under the general. ed. Gradova, Kuzina. St. Petersburg: Special literature, 1996.

77. Taranukha Yu.V. Economics of industrial markets (in structural and logical diagrams) / Under the general editorship. Doctor of Economics, Prof. A.V.Sidorovich; Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov. M.: "Business and Service", 2002. - 240 p.

78. Thomson A.A., Strickland A.J. Strategic management. M.: Unity, 1998

79. Transport in Russia: Statistical collection / Goskomstat of Russia. - M., 2003

80. Fedorenko N.P. Issues of optimal functioning of the economy. M.: Nauka, 1990.

81. Financial and economic mechanism of state support for innovation activity and its regional forms, parts 1-2. M.: RAGS, 1997. - 320 p.

82. Khan D. PiK. Planning and control: the concept of controlling. / Per. with him. M.: "Finance and Statistics", 1997. - 800 p.

83. Khachaturov T.S. Efficiency of capital investments. -M.: Economics, 1979

84. Helfner E. Technique of financial analysis / Transl. from English edited by L.P. Belykh. M.: Audit, UNITY, 1996. - 663 p.

85. Khodov L.G. Fundamentals of state economic policy: Textbook. M.: BEK Publishing House, 1997. - 332 p.

86. Cherkasov V.V. Problems of risk in management activities. M.:, 1999

87. Sharp W., Alexander G., Bailey J. Investments. Translation from English.-M.: INFRA-M, 1999. - 1028 p.

88. Shakhov V.V. Insurance. M.: UNITY, 1997.

89. Sheremet A.D., Sayfulin R.S. Enterprise finance. -M.: Infra-M, 1997.

90. Economic theory of the national economy and the world economy. Study guide. Ed. Gryaznova A.A., Chechelova T.V. -M.: 1997.

91. World Bank World Bank. Survey of business conditions in the world "World Business Environment Survey" (http://www.worldbank.org/data/).

92. Data on developing markets. Euromoney Internet Securities Inc. (http://www.securities.com/cgi-bin).

93. Eggertston T. Economic Behavior and Institutions. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.

94. International Institute for Management Development. Assessment of the level of competition development, (http://www.imd.ch/wcy/ranking/ranking.cfm).

95. Statistical materials http://www.ieej.or.jp/tmp/

96. Heritage Foundation. Indices of economic freedom of countries. (http://www.heritage.org/news/2000/nrl 10100indexoverview.html).

97. IATA World Air Transport Statistics - Special AGM Edition 1-3. June 2003 -7 // http://www.iata.org/NR/ContentConnector/CS2000/SiteInterface/ sites/pressroom/file/wats47agm.pdf

98. McKinsey Global Institute, 1999, Unlocking Economic Growth in Russia (http://mgi.mckinsey.com/mgi/russian.asp).

Please note that the scientific texts presented above are posted for informational purposes only and were obtained through original dissertation text recognition (OCR). In this connection, they may contain errors associated with imperfect recognition algorithms. There are no such errors in the PDF files of dissertations and abstracts that we deliver.

Introduction

Chapter 1. System of state regulation of civil aviation activities in the Russian Federation . 10

1.1. Evolution of methodological approaches to ensuring the development of civil aviation activities 10

1.2. Assessment of the state and trends of civil aviation activities in Russia 33

1.3. Investment factors for the development of civil aviation activities 48

Chapter 2. Analysis of the investment capacity of the Russian civil aviation market 63

2.1. Civil aviation market 63

2.2. Air transportation and air services market in Russia 98

Chapter 3. The role of leasing in the development of civil aviation activities in Russia 115

3.2. Efficiency of financial leasing of aviation equipment 128

Conclusions and suggestions 146

List of used literature 153

Introduction to the work

The need to find scientifically based effective mechanisms for investment support and the development of high-tech sectors of the Russian economy in market economic conditions determines the relevance of the topic of this study. By the beginning of the third millennium, Russia had lost a significant part of the enormous potential that was created during the period of planned development. If the logic of the country's position as a superpower required the active development of industries that could ensure the strategic security of the state with their products, then the period of market reforms and the end of the Cold War relegated development issues at the level of industries and complexes to the background. The state has withdrawn itself from the problems of industrial development, and the emerging private sector is not yet sufficiently developed.

All these factors create the prerequisites for modernizing the industry at a qualitatively new technical and technological level. The main task is to intensify this process.

The degree of development of a scientific problem. Many scientific studies by both foreign and domestic scientists are devoted to the problems of investment activity and investment efficiency, the development of high-tech industries. Among them: V.D.Andrianov, V.Behrens, G.Birman, K.Van Horn, P.Vilensky, V.Gazman, L.Gitman, F.Damanpour, M.Jonk, R.Kanter, B.N .Kuzyk, V.I.Kushlin, L.Krushvits, A.Ya.Livshits, D.S.Lvov, A.M.Margolin, A.G.Porshnev, D.Rubinfeld, S.Smolyak, B.Twiss, N .Holt, S.Schmidt, D.Schumpeter, A.N.Folomiev.

This list can be significantly expanded. A number of domestic and foreign researchers reveal the specifics of investment support in the aviation industry, leasing of aircraft equipment, features of the economy of the industry and its interactions, including in the conditions of Russia and the CIS. Among them: V.S. Bulanov, G. Boulard, E. Matveev, O. Starodomsky, J. Ott, E. Phillips, A. N. Fetisov and others. However, the study of this issue cannot be called exhaustive. Investment support for the development of high-tech industries and the corresponding tools for their regulation are being transformed and developed together with the economies of countries under the influence of scientific and technological progress, information technology, and the internationalization of markets. This process requires constant scientific analysis, the development of theoretical explanations for new processes, the search for fresh solutions that use modern achievements of the world economy, theory and practice of industry development.

Analysis of the state of development of the aviation industry in Russia, key influencing factors and trends;

Analysis of global experience in investment support for the aviation industry and assessment of the possibilities of its adaptation to Russian conditions;

Identification of industry characteristics that influence the choice of investment support methods for the aviation industry;

Development of an investment mechanism for organizing financing of the aviation industry;

Justification of methods of state support for modern investment technologies.

The object of the study is civil aviation activity in Russia as a systemic entity, considered in conjunction with the infrastructure of its functioning.

The subject of the study is organizational and economic relations that arise in the process of investment support for the development of civil aviation activities in Russia.

The new scientific findings of the study are as follows:

The need to make adjustments to the system currently used for the purposes of state regulation is substantiated.

a predictive model for the development of civil aviation, the results of which are reflected in documents of a strategic nature. It is shown that the methodology currently used at the state level for assessing the country's need for aircraft production volumes and investment support for the industry gives significantly underestimated values. An imbalance in estimates of the level of future demand for aviation technology can significantly affect the parameters of the system of state regulation of the development of the industry and restrain its growth.

Theoretical conclusions and practical recommendations can be used by subjects of investment activities to improve their efficiency and taken into account when forming a development strategy for business entities and the aviation industry as a whole. Recommendations on state regulation of the investment sphere can be used by executive and legislative authorities when developing new and making adjustments to existing federal programs, their legal support, as well as when forming state economic and industrial policy. The main provisions of the study may be of interest to researchers, teachers and practitioners, and can be used for the development of relevant special courses on investment activities.

Evolution of methodological approaches to ensuring the development of civil aviation activities

The significance of aviation activities for the development of Russia is extremely high. Due to the special geopolitical position of the country, which has a vast territory and long borders, combined with an underdeveloped network of railway and road communications in the regions Far North and similar areas, civil aviation is of utmost importance for ensuring the national security of Russia. In turn, the national aviation industry is one of the most technologically developed and knowledge-intensive industries, stimulating development and integrating its activities huge amount technologically interconnected industries various industries national economy.

In Russia, civil aviation plays a special role, being, on the one hand, a sub-sector that provides transport services to the population and other clients, and on the other hand, performing the most important function of the country’s integrator, providing transport links between the Center and remote regions where ground transport communications are either absent , or are extremely poorly developed. It should be noted that such regions include more than 60 percent of the country’s territory.

The scientific, technical and production potential of the aviation industry, which ensures Russia’s place as one of the leading aviation powers in the world, is the country’s most valuable asset. The aviation industry remains one of the industries capable of creating high-tech products at the global level.

However, as a result of the chaotic changes of the 90s. in the economy and social sphere, the fall in the effective demand of the population, the emergence of difficulties in the process of adaptation to the market conditions formed in the country and the costs of reorganization, civil aviation and the aviation industry of Russia found themselves in a difficult situation. The degradation of the Russian aviation industry, which has been ongoing for 15 years, has led the industry to a situation in which its potential may be lost in the coming years. This will create a serious threat to the national security of the Russian Federation. Without targeted government support, the industry cannot be restored. At the same time, to “treat the patient” it is necessary to have a clear idea of the object of application of forces, without which neither the direction nor the magnitude of the efforts required from the state are obvious.

What happened in the country in the 90s. last century, radical changes in economic and social spheres, changes in property relations, principles and structure of national economic management entailed a transformation of available approaches and tools for state regulation of the development of individual industries. Fifteen years of chaotic transformations in the life of the country, on the one hand, maintained some continuity in approaches to organizing the management of industries, and on the other hand, ensured partial adaptation to national conditions of various elements of the management methodology characteristic of developed market economies.

In this regard, in order to achieve the objectives of the study, it seems necessary to consider the evolution of methodological approaches to ensuring the development of civil aviation activities in Russia in order to determine the prerequisites for its further development. The theoretical and methodological basis for such an analysis can be the theory of the organization of industrial markets.1 This theory shows how this or that behavior of economic entities develops, how it is modified depending on the real and expected actions of other economic agents, including the state. The theory of the organization of industrial markets provides for the development of tools for economic analysis in relation to a more in-depth study of market structures, a deepening of the understanding of the patterns of functioning, sectors of markets and firms, a more complete study of the possibility and necessity of state regulation of the industrial structure, which is of particular importance from the point of view of conducting effective industrial policy.

The task of analysis based on the theory of organization of industrial markets can be called the study of connections between its participants, revealing the structure of the market and significant aspects of the behavior of market participants (including in terms of pricing, product differentiation, investment, innovation, etc.). In this case, the result of the analysis will be the manifestation of the behavior of participants and its boundary conditions, which is expected to provide accessible solutions for regulating the market and industry, including the so-called “area of compromise” within which the interests of the participants in question may coincide.

Assessment of the state and trends of civil aviation activities in Russia

For the purposes of research and solving problems aimed at the effective development of civil aviation activities in Russia, it is of fundamental importance to obtain objective data on the state of the industry and its infrastructure, development trends, and a set of factors that are most significant for this process. The key questions that require answers based on an in-depth study of the situation, it seems, can be considered the following: - What is the domestic civil aviation activity at the present time? - How is the past development of the Russian aviation industry influenced? - What is the impact of the domestic Russian economic situation on the industry? - How does the external environment influence the development of the field under study? - What influencing factors are key for the prospects of the aviation industry and all aviation activities? - How and in what direction can the state most effectively stimulate the development of civil aviation activities?

Today, the Russian aviation industry consists of about 300 enterprises and organizations directly involved in the development and production of aviation equipment, its testing, scientific research in the field of aviation, providing intermediary and other services. In addition, dozens of enterprises formally classified as other industries (radio electronics, communications, etc.) actually work for aviation.

It is problematic to say exactly how many enterprises can be considered “industry”. On the one hand, enterprises are converted, switch to other products, and cease to be “aviation”; on the other hand, many subsidiaries, branches, holdings are created and disappeared, and various associations arise. Thus, by the decision of the government back in 1996, the state Aviation Military-Industrial Complex "Sukhoi" was created, which included subsidiaries of the state aviation plants in Novosibirsk and Komsomolsk-on-Amur and the previously corporatized Irkutsk Plant and the Design Bureau named after. P.O. Sukhoi. At the same time, both the plants and design bureaus continue to exist as independent enterprises, although there is also a general directorate of AVIZh "Sukhoi".

The aviation industry traditionally includes enterprises that were previously under the responsibility of the Ministry of Aviation Industry of the USSR, and then the Department of Aviation Industry of the Ministry of Defense Industry of the Russian Federation; in the period 2000 - 2004, enterprises of the Russian aviation industrial complex were subordinate enterprises of the Russian Aviation and Space Agency (RAKA » director Koptev Yu.N.), from March 2004 to the present, the industry is in charge Federal agency for Industry (“Rosprom” headed by Aleshin B.S.) of the Ministry of Industry and Energy of the Russian Federation (Minister, Khristenko V.B.), where several Directorates have been created that oversee various areas of activity of the aviation industry. Of the enterprises within the area of responsibility of Rosprom, they actually exist, operate, produce and sell aviation products: - more than 20 scientific centers and research and testing institutes, incl. six with the status of scientific and technical centers (TsAGI, CIAM, GosNIIAS, LII, VIAM, NIIAA); - over 70 enterprises - developers of aviation equipment, incl. 20 aircraft and helicopters, over 20 aircraft engines, about 30 instruments, units and systems; - more than 125 enterprises - manufacturers of aviation equipment, incl. 36 on airplanes and helicopters, 21 on aircraft engines, and over 60 on instruments, systems and assemblies for aviation equipment. The boundaries in the product affiliation of enterprises are also blurred. Omsk "Polyot", for example, which has always produced rocket engines, continuing to do so, began to master the production light aircraft An-3, modernization of the famous and widely used "old lady" An-2.

In addition to design bureaus, scientific enterprises and organizations, and serial plants, there are more than 50 so-called “other” enterprises in the industry. This includes the above-mentioned associations, corporations and holdings of various types, uniting enterprises that retain legal independence, as well as subsidiaries, intermediary, supply, implementation enterprises, medical institutions, etc. Enterprises - developers and suppliers of radio devices and systems, optics, communications equipment etc., working in cooperation with the aviation industry, traditionally belong to other industries - the radio industry, the communications industry, etc., which have retained their departmental subordination.

Currently, the industry can identify a fairly viable core of leading enterprises that supply military aircraft for export.

Civil aviation market

For the purposes of the study, the analysis of the market for civil aviation equipment produced by the Russian aviation industry is of particular interest. Such an analysis is important in terms of forecasting the purchase of aircraft by airlines for operation, both domestic and international. international lines. It is also important to assess the possible share of domestic aircraft, taking into account competitiveness, in its overall purchases, which will demonstrate the capacity of the domestic market. To assess the capacity of the foreign market, a forecast of the possibilities for exporting domestically produced civil aircraft is necessary.

Purchases of aviation equipment for the needs of civil aviation on the domestic market are determined, on the one hand, by the needs of operating airlines for aircraft to ensure effective demand for air transportation, i.e. the air transportation market and the capabilities of the existing aircraft fleet.

On the other hand, demand is limited by the airlines’ availability of financial resources for purchases or the ability to obtain such funds using various forms of lending, incl. -financial leasing.

In steadily developing countries, as a rule, a dynamic balance is ensured between the effective demand for transport services, the cost of these services and their supply, as well as the demand for transportation and the financial capabilities of carriers to purchase equipment capable of satisfying this demand, incl. at the expense of funds received using credit mechanisms. In the USSR, before the start of reforms, such a balance was ensured artificially, through subsidies in direct and indirect form to manufacturers of civil aircraft, its purchases at prices reduced due to such subsidies by the state (Ministry of Civil Aviation), acting as a single state leasing company, and transferring it into operation by a single the state airline Aeroflot, whose activities were also directly and indirectly subsidized, and depreciation payments went to the state. As a result, the cost of a ticket for a typical flight with a range of 1.5 - 2 thousand km. was 15-20% of the average monthly in the 80s wages, and the number of flights per year per capita, which statistically characterizes the accessibility of air transport for the population, reached 0.6, i.e. air transport was available to almost all workers at least once a year. In developed European countries this figure is about 0.8-1.5, in the USA and Canada - up to 2.5-3.0, while in poor developing countries it does not exceed, as a rule, 0.1-0.2 or less.

In 1992-97, as a result of the cessation of subsidies in any form, both to airline enterprises (including due to the liberalization of prices for raw materials, materials, energy, components) and air carriers (liberation of prices for aviation fuel, airport and air navigation services, etc.), which occurred in 1992-93. The collapse of the old Aeroflot into several hundred individual airlines, mainly formed on the site of its regional divisions and receiving their fleet of aircraft practically free of charge, and since 1994 - the cessation of government purchases of aircraft, this artificial balance was disrupted. The real incomes of workers have decreased sharply, and average prices for air tickets have increased several times (in comparable figures). By the end of 1997-98. the price of a ticket for a typical flight was already close to the average salary, and by the end of 2000 it exceeded it by 1.2-1.5 times. As a result, the average frequency of flights per year per capita fell by 1998. up to 0.2.

In subsequent years, the situation stabilized, the standard of living increased and traffic volumes also grew. By the end of 2001, the average salary was equal to the price of a ticket for a typical flight, and by the end of 2003 it was approximately 20% higher. Currently, the trend continues.

During the reform period of the 90s, the level of purchases of domestic aircraft decreased sharply. In 1995, after the cessation of government procurement, their total sales without helicopters and light aircraft amounted to 20 units, in 1997 8 units.

The period after the 1998 default was characterized by a slow stabilization of the situation in the air transportation market and overcoming their unprofitability for airlines. Despite the rapid increase in prices for air tickets within the country from the pre-crisis level to the end of 2000 by 3.5 times (in current ruble prices), by 2000 there was some growth in air transportation volumes.

Contents and possibilities of aviation leasing at the present stage

Leasing is an English-language term (from to lease - to take, to lease), which acquired official status in Russia with the release in 1995 of the second part of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, and then the Law of the Russian Federation “On Leasing”. In turn, the Law “On Leasing” has undergone a number of serious modifications from the first edition in 1998, then - on the basis of the Law “On Amendments and Additions to the Law “On Leasing”, adopted in 2002. Currently, the Law “On Leasing” is in force. leasing" as amended on January 29, 2002 No. 10-FZ, taking into account the latest changes and additions. Along with the regulatory framework, the term “leasing” itself changed from the adoption of the RF PS to the 2002 law.

The term “leasing” in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation is defined in a rather narrow sense - as a special case of lease - finance lease when the lessor (lessor) undertakes to acquire ownership of the property specified by the lessee (the subject of leasing) and provide it for a fee to the lessee (lessee) for temporary possession and use. Leasing, therefore, differed from “regular” rent in that it is not the property already owned by the lessor that is leased, but only the property specifically acquired by him again within the framework of this agreement for this tenant. In this case, the tenant receives the leased property directly from the seller and has all the rights of the buyer, and the lessor not only provides the necessary financial resources for this (as with lending), but also remains, as with other types of lease, the owner of the acquired property. As a rule, the term of a financial lease is commensurate with the depreciation period of the leased asset or exceeds it.

In the Law “On Leasing” of 1998, the term “leasing” was given an expanded meaning, actually replacing the general term “lease” from the PS of the Russian Federation and introducing the concept of “operational leasing” for “regular” leasing, in which the lessor purchases the leased property in advance (rent) ownership of property “at your own peril and risk”, you can lease it repeatedly and for short term, and the lessee has no right to demand the transfer of ownership of the property at the end of the leasing period. The latter is provided for in the 1998 Law only for “financial leasing”.

When “amendments and additions” were made in 2002, the concept of “operational leasing”, as well as the concept of “short-term” leasing, was removed from the Law “On Leasing”. In the current version of the Law, as in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, only “financial lease (leasing)” remains, with almost verbatim repetition of the provisions of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation to define it. Thus, according to the new version, it is unlawful to consider as leasing the transfer for rent of property that previously, before the conclusion of the agreement, already belonged to the lessor, and, moreover, the repeated lease of such property.

At the same time, the 2002 edition contains a provision that is missing in the PS about the possibility of “transfer of the leased asset into the ownership of the lessee upon expiration of the lease agreement or before its expiration,” but is no longer mandatory for financial leasing (as was the case in the 1998 Law .), but “on the terms provided for by agreement of the parties.”

In the 2002 edition, in addition, the provision of the law from 1998 was preserved, allowing for the implementation of the so-called “returnable” leasing, when the owner sells his leased property to the lessor and then leases this property from him. In this case, “the functions of the seller and the lessee are combined in one person.”

Thus, leasing, as interpreted by the Law as amended in 2002, is defined as a set of economic and legal relations arising in connection with the implementation of a leasing agreement, including the acquisition of the leased asset.

A leasing agreement is an agreement under which the lessor (lessor) undertakes to acquire ownership of the property specified by the lessee (lessee) from a seller specified by him and to provide this property to the lessee for a fee for temporary possession and use. The leasing agreement may provide that the choice of the seller and the purchased property is carried out by the lessor, but within the framework of this particular leasing agreement, and not in advance.

The leased asset, transferred for temporary use and possession to the lessee, remains the property of the lessor until the transfer of ownership to the lessee by agreement of the parties, usually at the end of the leasing term, although early “redemption” of the leased asset by making the agreed remaining amount of payments is also possible. The subject of leasing can be any non-consumable things, including enterprises and other property complexes, buildings, structures, equipment, vehicles and other movable and immovable property that can be used for business activities.

Vakhrushev, Valentin Yurievich

An important task in the formation of projects for the development of regional air transportation, in particular, regional air carriers, is to determine the optimal types of aircraft for the primary stage of route promotion and secondary stages when routes reach planned levels

Downloads.

The low level of competitiveness of obsolete types of aircraft, primarily domestic aircraft of previous generations, will determine their further active withdrawal from the passenger transportation market. To replace them and meet the growing demand for air travel Russian airlines in the period until 2031, deliveries of 1960-2370 aircraft of various capacity classes will be required, with a predominance of narrow-body long-haul aircraft. Needs for cargo planes are expected to be much less significant (up to 260 units).

What is long-awaited for the industry is the effective reduction in the cost of airport services by simplifying the certification requirements for airports of regional and local airlines with low flight intensity.

At the same time, reducing costs does not always lead to lower costs for the consumer. To solve this dilemma, it is advisable to use state forms of ownership and ownership of the infrastructure of airports and landing sites or forms of public-private partnership, since regional aviation, given the existing economic realities and the effective demand of the population, remains a socially significant and investment-unattractive business that requires state support, presented in Table 3.1

Having significant experience in researching the regional air transportation market in the Russian Federation, it is advisable to consider the approach of the Central Research Center of Civil Aviation, based on the best international practices. The Center for Strategic Research in Civil Aviation implements the following proven algorithm for determining the demand for air transportation, which has been repeatedly tested and shown to be effective in forecasting the development of the regional air transportation market and modeling route networks, both within the constituent entities of the federation and within the federal districts of the Russian Federation.

Table 3.1 Forecast of passenger aircraft deliveries

When solving problems of modeling passenger and cargo flows in regions, obtaining access to databases is one of the main tasks. To simplify the solution of this problem, it is necessary in the first stages of the study to ensure interaction with federal and regional authorities, in which it is possible to provide access to the absolute majority of the necessary data for analysis.

The most important aspect when analyzing demand for modeling air transportation route networks in the regions at all stages is the use of specialized software systems that make it possible to process large amounts of information in a short time

The development of specialized software systems takes significant time and resources. For example, the TsSR GA developed its own software packages for analyzing demand on domestic and international airlines, and this took several years, taking into account the fact that experts already had all the techniques for analyzing data sets. Now these proprietary software systems allow us to quickly solve the problem of professional analysis of statistical data series and further forecast of demand by all modes of transport, including demand for regional and local air transportation.

When modeling the route network of regional air transportation in macroregions, it is necessary to take into account the following aspects:

Ensuring the unity of the transport space throughout the country, taking into account all types of transport, ensuring integration within the macro-regions and between the main economic and cultural centers of the macro-regions.

Ensuring budget savings on subsidies taking into account the use of transit and transfer schemes.

Taking into account in the development the results of the pilot project for the development of regional air transportation in the Volga Federal District.

Taking into account the results of the implementation of other subsidy programs from the federal budget in the development.

Taking into account the best international practices in the formation of regional and local air transport route networks.

Consideration of other aspects.

To fully solve the problem of supporting and developing local and regional air transport, it will be necessary to take a systematic approach, since it is intersectoral in nature (due to the lack of a sufficient number of aircraft with acceptable technical and economic characteristics for this type of transport) and affects everyone to varying degrees. regions of the Russian Federation.

To fully solve the problem it is necessary:

Provide state support for airlines and airports carrying out transportation on airlines identified as socially significant, aimed at covering the costs of operating airlines and issuing preferential loans to carriers for the purchase of new aircraft;

Subjects of the Russian Federation should consider reducing the rate of local taxes for airlines that carry out and provide transportation on local and regional airlines;

Exempt from paying VAT airlines that carry out local and regional air transportation on socially important airlines;

Develop a package of social benefits for aviation specialists providing local and regional air transportation;

Develop a mechanism for subsidizing the cost of fuel for local and regional air transportation;

Take measures to develop the network educational institutions, including additional professional training in areas of training (aviation training centers) most in demand in the region, and updating the material and technical base of educational institutions.

In conclusion, I would like to note that a key factor in the development of regional transportation, along with subsidies, is the adoption of regulatory measures aimed at reducing the financial burden on both airlines and airports. Our transportation will only become affordable if we seriously reduce the financial burden on airlines and airports.

The latest economic indicators for the 1st quarter of 2014 - the American economy decreased by 2.9%, which is the largest drop since the beginning of 2009. This serves as a stark warning that actual global market growth is fragile.

At the same time, many investors today are looking for all sorts of alternative investment options in order to diversify their investment portfolios with an even distribution of risks. However, in their desire to search for new projects, many investors ignore the asset that many of them use quite often - airplanes.

Unlike real estate or other infrastructure, aircraft as an asset create more stable and predictable cash flows on a monthly basis. rental payments. In addition, proper technical monitoring and maintenance of modern aircraft can maintain their economic efficiency for 25 years of operation. At the end of its service life, the aircraft can be disassembled into parts and components, which can then be sold on the secondary market.

Investors prefer to minimize their high-risk assets in advance in order to insure themselves against possible hidden risks.

Despite numerous global economic problems associated with leading aircraft manufacturers, experts are confident in their forecasts of annual growth in air traffic and demand for new aircraft. Boeing and Airbus are confident of 5% annual growth in air traffic over the next two decades. In an effort to support growth in demand for air transport, companies are actively placing orders for airliners. China alone plans to order aircraft worth $600 billion by 2030.

But most transportation companies have a profit of 1-5% based on the results of their work for the year and are forced to look for sources of free cash. In this case, investors have the opportunity to invest free cash assets in airlines and receive stable payments. Finance and leasing companies own more than 40% of the world's commercial aircraft fleet.

After concluding rental or leasing transactions, the lessor must constantly monitor technical condition airplanes. Poor maintenance and improper maintenance work can lead to an increase in aircraft accident rates and lead to multimillion-dollar losses.

Investors can choose different strategies with different levels of risk to make their investments. When financing a transaction, it is necessary to provide for possible risks and carefully select a partner.

It might be useful to read:

Problems and features of the development of civil aviation in modern conditions. Investment support for the development of civil aviation activities in Russia Alexander Alekseevich Kuznetsov Investment aspects of the development of civil aviation in the Russian Federation

Recommended list of dissertations

Leasing of aviation equipment as a tool for increasing the competitiveness of air transport in the Russian Federation 2006, Candidate of Economic Sciences Chubarov, Nikolai Nikolaevich

Leasing as a factor in the development of entrepreneurship: the example of an airline 2009, Candidate of Economic Sciences Zosimov, Dionis Ruslanovich

Criteria for the development of production and use of aviation equipment in the conditions of the market economic system of Russia 2004, Candidate of Economic Sciences Tishenin, Andrey Alekseevich

Experience and problems of financial leasing: the example of Aeroflot 2007, Candidate of Economic Sciences Kharlashkina, Maria Ruslanovna

Ways of using international leasing by Russian enterprises when purchasing civil aircraft 2000, Candidate of Economic Sciences Pavlov, Igor Gennadievich

Introduction of the dissertation (part of the abstract) on the topic “Investment support for the development of civil aviation activities in Russia”

Leasing as an investment policy tool in the aviation production and operational complex 2008, Candidate of Economic Sciences Ostrovsky, Alexey Konstantinovich

Technology for assessing the economic feasibility of civil aviation fleet renewal projects based on leasing 2002, Candidate of Economic Sciences Grumondz, Andrey Valerievich

The leasing mechanism as a tool for managing investments in capital goods: The example of civil aviation 2004, Candidate of Economic Sciences Zargano, Mikhail Gennadievich

Organizational and economic mechanisms for managing leasing activities in Russian civil aviation 2004, Candidate of Economic Sciences Samokhin, Alexey Viktorovich

Improving the mechanism for managing leasing relations in air transport 2005, Candidate of Economic Sciences Cherkashin, Dmitry Sergeevich

List of references for dissertation research Candidate of Economic Sciences Kuznetsov, Alexander Alekseevich, 2005

Evolution of methodological approaches to ensuring the development of civil aviation activities

Assessment of the state and trends of civil aviation activities in Russia

Civil aviation market

Contents and possibilities of aviation leasing at the present stage